Venezuela Crisis Impact on India: Why CRISIL Predicts Zero Disruption for India Inc

13 Jan 2026, 09:58 by Vinay Kakkad · KalingaTV

According to a recent report by CRISIL Ratings, the ongoing political and military turmoil in Venezuela—sparked by the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro—will not have any material impact on India’s trade flows or the credit profiles of Indian companies.

Despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves (roughly 19% of the global total), the rating agency—an S&P Global company that provides ratings, data, and research—noted that the nation currently accounts for only 1.5% of global supply. This minimal market share, combined with India’s low direct trade exposure, ensures that “India Inc” remains largely insulated from the crisis.

The situation initially caused concern because India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, importing nearly 85% of its crude requirements. Historically, India and Venezuela shared significant energy ties; in the early 2010s, Venezuela was a top supplier, and Indian giants like ONGC Videsh held major stakes in the Orinoco oil belt. Given this history, there were fears that a major disruption or an escalation involving global powers like Russia and China (who support the Maduro regime) could trigger a spike in global oil prices, leading to domestic inflation and a wider trade deficit for India.

What actually happened :

However, the reality of the situation has proven far less volatile than feared. CRISIL points out several factors that have mitigated the impact:

Minimal Trade Links: By fiscal 2025, India’s imports from Venezuela had already dropped to less than 0.25% of its total imports, with only 1% of India’s crude oil sourced from the country.
Price Stability: Despite the January 3, 2026 military action, Brent crude prices have remained stable, hovering just above $60 per barrel, as the market did not experience a significant supply shock.
Export Insulation: India’s exports to Venezuela are equally marginal, totaling less than ₹2,000 crore (under 0.1% of total exports) across sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles.

Transitioning from these concerns to a more optimistic outlook, CRISIL suggests that the crisis could actually benefit India in the long run. If the new political landscape leads to increased investment in Venezuela’s vast untapped reserves, the resulting boost in global supply could soften oil prices over the medium term—a positive outcome for the Indian economy.