Australian Dollar treads water as US Dollar rises ahead of Initial Jobless Claims
by Akhtar Faruqui · FXStreet- The Australian Dollar holds ground despite a decline in Australia’s trade surplus.
- China’s Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.1 in May, improving from 50.7 in April.
- The US Dollar continues to struggle after the weaker economic data released on Wednesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains its position against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair remains in positive territory following the release of domestic trade balance and China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
Australia’s Trade Balance posted a 5,413M surplus month-over-month in April, below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.
The AUD/USD pair also gained ground as the US Dollar faced challenges following the weaker economic data and rising economic uncertainty in the United States (US). The US Balance of Trade and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be eyed later in the North American session. Focus will shift toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls to gain further insights into the Fed’s policy outlook.
Australian Dollar steadies as US Dollar recovers losses
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading at around 98.80 at the time of writing, after recovering its daily losses. The Greenback receives downward pressure from dampened risk sentiment amid rising tariff uncertainty and its potential to hurt growth in the US economy.
- Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.
- US President Donald Trump called upon, in a post published on Truth Social on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to lower the policy rate. "ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES," Trump said.
- On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the labor market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, persistent uncertainty prevails over the economy, and the Fed must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.
- House Republicans passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over the US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under the “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by July 4.
- Last week, Trump accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs reached earlier this month. Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower reciprocal tariffs in a meeting in Geneva. Trump said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us." US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said that China had failed to remove non-tariff barriers as agreed. In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that China had complied with the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at US "reciprocal tariffs."
- China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, falling short of the market expectations of a 50.6 expansion. However, the weekend data showed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 from the previous 50.4 figure, falling short of the expected reading of 50.6. The Aussie Dollar could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, declining from the previous 0.6% growth. Australia’s economy fell short of the expected 0.4% rise. Meanwhile, the annual GDP growth rate remained consistent at 1.3%, below the expected 1.5%.
- The S&P Global Australia Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.5 in May from April’s 51.0 reading, expanding for the eighth successive month. However, the pace indicates marginal growth in business activity, albeit the slowest so far in 2025.
- The S&P Global Australia Services PMI came at 50.6 in May, marking a 16th straight month of expansion but at the slowest pace in six months. The Ai Group Manufacturing PMI posted a -23.5 reading, an improvement from the previous -26.5. Manufacturers experience delays in major projects and rising market hesitation due to global and domestic uncertainty.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting suggested that the board viewed the case for a 25 basis point cut as stronger, preferring a policy to be cautious and predictable. The policymakers highlighted that US trade policy posed a significant and adverse impact on the global outlook, but had not yet affected the Australian economy. However, they did not believe that a 50 bps rate increase was needed.
- RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter expressed caution on Tuesday that “higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy.” Hunter noted that higher uncertainty could dampen investment, output, and employment in Australia. However, she also added that Australia’s exporters are relatively well-placed to weather the storm and assumes that Chinese authorities will support their economy through fiscal stimulus.
Australian Dollar challenges 0.6500 barrier ahead of seven-month peak
The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Thursday, with a persistent bullish bias. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. The short-term price momentum remains stronger as the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish outlook.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target a seven-month high of 0.6537, which was recorded on May 26. Further advances explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6670.
The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6468, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6460. A break below this crucial support zone could dampen the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6400.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | 0.00% | 0.13% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | -0.00% | 0.17% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.25% | -0.26% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.23% | -0.03% | -0.05% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.25% | 0.03% | -0.06% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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