Sterling falls as UK inflation data signals BoE rate cut, dollar rises
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NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 17 : Sterling weakened on Wednesday after an unexpected drop in UK inflation all but guaranteed that the Bank of England would cut interest rates, while the dollar rose as traders awaited other central bank decisions and weighed commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
Sterling was set for the biggest one-day drop as interest rate futures priced in a near 100 per cent chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the BoE on Thursday.
Data had shown that British inflation fell much more sharply than forecast in November to 3.2 per cent, its lowest since March, from 3.6 per cent in October.
"Today's CPI release removes any remaining doubt around a BoE cut in tomorrow's meeting," said TS Lombard analyst Alexandros Xenofontos in an investor note. "Taken alongside yesterday's labour market data release, the data are sufficient for the MPC to cut tomorrow but not yet strong enough to justify more than one cut in 2026."
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Sterling was down 0.34 per cent to $1.33749, easing away from the two-month high it touched on Tuesday after data showed Britain's unemployment rate hit its highest since the start of 2021.
"For Sterling, we have noted that our view of relative underperformance is predicated on softer data, including on the inflation front, rather than a 'dovish' reaction function in itself. Today’s data goes in that direction and focus will now turn to the BoE meeting tomorrow," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Teresa Alves wrote in an investor note.
CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS IN FOCUS
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid rising job market weakness.
That was in contrast to commentary by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, who said on Tuesday that he did not think that the Fed's decision to cut rates last week was warranted, and that he had penciled in no further reductions in borrowing costs for 2026, given his outlook that economic growth will rebound to around 2.5 per cent and price pressures will remain elevated.
The U.S. consumer price index data is due on Thursday.
"We saw the dollar weaken after the jobs data yesterday, but the move was reversed fairly quickly because I think the market seems to be kind of doubtful about the possibility of a Fed cut in January," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose 0.16 per cent to 98.37, still not far from the lowest level since early October hit on Tuesday. The index is down about 9.5 per cent this year, on track for its steepest annual decline since 2017.
Markets are awaiting a host of central bank policy decisions due this week, including the BoE and European Central Bank on Thursday, as well as the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates on Friday to a three-decade high.
The dollar strengthened 0.6 per cent to 155.625 against the yen ahead of the BOJ meeting, where the focus will be on the forward guidance and where the policy rate is headed in 2026.
Europe's largest economy continues to struggle to grow, with a survey showing that German business morale unexpectedly fell in December.
The euro was flat at $1.174375, after touching a 12-week high on Tuesday ahead of the ECB policy decision, where the central bank is expected to hold rates steady.
"I think of all these central bank meetings that are coming up, the ECB is not likely to be very impactful, but the Bank of Japan is probably the most important and where most uncertainty lies," Serebriakov said.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.18 per cent to $85,874.32. Ethereum declined 4.66 per cent to $2,814.11.
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