Oil prices to stay elevated across Iran war scenarios
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March 27 : Oil prices could surge well beyond current levels as the Iran war unfolds, analysts polled by Reuters said, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle Eastern production facilities cut deeply into global supplies, with no clear picture on when flows will resume.
Brent futures have surged by more than 50 per cent since the war began, and briefly topped $119 a barrel last week, after Iran attacked energy targets across the Middle East and threatened vessels attempting to sail through the Strait, a conduit for around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies.
Prices are expected to remain high under different scenarios posed by Reuters, according to the poll of 13 analysts, potentially climbing to $200 a barrel if Iranian export facilities are damaged.
Elevated energy prices are rippling across the global economy. Oil and gas-importing countries in Asia and Europe are taking the biggest hit and would be hit the hardest if oil prices sustained a breach above $150 a barrel, analysts said.
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"As long as transit through the Strait of Hormuz is affected, all Asian countries will feel the pinch but in somewhat different ways. North Asian countries will risk power rationing while South and Southeast Asian countries will risk consumer and industrial fuel rationing," said DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar.
KHARG ISLAND HIT COULD PUSH BRENT TO $200
Assuming current supply disruptions are sustained, analysts estimate Brent prices between $100 and $190, with an average forecast of $134.62.
The war had shrunk global oil supplies by around 11 million barrels per day as of March 23, according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol.
While U.S. President Donald Trump this week extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he has also been weighing whether to use ground forces to seize Kharg Island, a hub for around 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports.
An escalation in the conflict that damages export facilities at Kharg Island would lift prices above $120, with some analysts forecasting levels as high as $200. The average forecast for this scenario was $153.85.
If the U.S. and Israel were to declare an end to the war soon, but Iran's threats to shipping operations through the Strait of Hormuz persist, analysts see prices anywhere between $50 and $150, reflecting the uncertainty over how long or severe disruptions to oil flows through the Strait would be in the aftermath of the war.
While all industries would feel the impact of higher energy costs, power-intensive sectors as well as agriculture and downstream chemicals-dependent industries would be especially hard hit.
"Rising transport costs affect consumer goods but also capital goods. Supply chain problems and rising costs affect in particular the chemical and agriculture sector," said Thomas Wybierek, analyst at NORD/LB.
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