HDB resale price growth slows to 2.9% in 2025; slowest since 2019
This is the first time HDB resale prices have remained unchanged since the first quarter of 2020.
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SINGAPORE: Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat resale prices rose by 2.9 per cent in 2025, compared with 9.7 per cent in 2024, marking the slowest price growth since 2019.
The HDB resale price index, which reflects the general price movements in the resale market, remained largely unchanged at 203.6 in the fourth quarter, according to HDB’s flash estimate on Friday (Jan 2). It stood at 203.7 in the previous quarter.
This is the first time resale prices have remained unchanged since the first quarter of 2020.
"This follows four consecutive quarters of slower price growth for resale flats," said HDB in a media release. "Specifically, the last three quarters of 2025 saw price growth of under 1 per cent".
Resale volume in the fourth quarter of this year was 5,129, an 18.8 per cent decrease from the 6,314 cases recorded in the same period last year.
It was the second consecutive quarter with a double-digit year-on-year percentage drop in quarterly resale volume, HDB said.
Meanwhile, total resale volume for the full year up to Dec 30, 2025, was 26,042, a 9.8 per cent drop from the 28,876 cases recorded in the corresponding period last year.
The last time annual resale volume declined was in 2023, when it fell by 4.2 per cent compared with 2022 - less than half the current rate of decline.
ANALYSTS' VIEWS
Property analysts expect the pace of growth of resale prices to moderate in 2026 compared with the previous year, as a large supply of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) is expected to boost supply.
“An estimated 13,484 flats are projected to reach their MOP in 2026, nearly double the number in 2025,” said Singapore Realtors Inc head of research and data analytics Mohan Sandrasegeran.
“This sizeable cohort is likely to introduce a larger pool of newer flats into the resale market, giving buyers a wider range of options with longer remaining leases and easing some of the supply tightness seen in recent years.”
ERA Singapore key executive officer Eugene Lim said HDB resale transactions should range between 26,000 and 27,000 units in the year ahead.
“This outlook is driven by two key factors: a larger pipeline of about 13,840 MOP flats entering the resale market and steady price growth, which may encourage more homeowners to sell,” he said.
Huttons Asia senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck said a reduced BTO supply in 2026 and 2027 may not be able to meet demand. This could drive some buyers to the HDB resale market.
However, the increased number of flats reaching their five-year MOP in 2026 will offer buyers more options, stabilising the HDB resale market.
Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, said that anticipated lower mortgage rates, healthy income growth and population expansion may boost demand.
“An increase in premium flat transactions is expected, as more resale flats in mature estates will be reaching MOP in 2026,” she said. “All these factors are likely to soften the market impact from the supply surge and help prevent significant price corrections.”
“We expect HDB resale prices to rise by 2 to 4 per cent for the whole of 2026, which will be on par with the 2.9 per cent for 2025 but lower than the 10-year average of 5.1 per cent from 2016 to 2025,” she added.
OUTLOOK
HDB will launch about 4,600 Build-to-Order (BTO) flats in Bukit Merah, Sembawang, Tampines, and Toa Payoh in February.
It will also conduct a concurrent Sale of Balance Flats exercise comprising about 3,000 units.
“The government will continue to monitor the property market closely and adjust its policies as necessary to promote a stable and sustainable property market,” said HDB.
“Given the uncertain macroeconomic outlook, households should continue to exercise prudence when purchasing properties and taking on mortgage loans.”
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