Recession Betting Odds Surge Past 60% On Major Platforms As Markets Plunge Over Trump Tariffs
by Antonio Pequeño IV · ForbesTopline
A surge in bettors are predicting a recession in the U.S. this year, with odds rising to at least 62% on Monday as the Trump administration doubled down on its sweeping tariff policies that have sent markets reeling.
Key Facts
Kalshi is displaying 65% odds for a recession, the platform’s highest odds this year, and up from around 40% prior to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement Wednesday levying tariffs against nearly all countries.
Polymarket, an offshore betting platform, shows a 62% chance of a recession occurring in the U.S. this year, cooling down Monday afternoon after peaking at 66% on Sunday, when Goldman Sachs economists said they expect a recession to occur if the Trump administration goes through with its tariff rates.
Polymarket recession odds have surged 23 percentage points since the start of April, when odds were at 39% prior to Trump’s announcement.
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How Have Recession Betting Odds Changed Since Trump’s Inauguration?
On Trump’s first day in office, Polymarket showed a 26% chance of a recession happening this year. Kalshi had 2025 recession odds at 18% on Inauguration Day.
What Have Economists Said About The Odds Of A Recession?
Goldman Sachs economists, who put the odds of a recession at 20% in March, told clients in a Sunday note the probability increased to 45% this month. Meanwhile, JPMorgan economists provided 60% recession odds at the end of last week. UCLA economist Clement Bohr said if Trump’s economic policies, which include tariffs and the dismantling of federal agencies, are “pared back or phased in more gradually,” a recession is “entirely avoidable.”
Key Background
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement last week triggered a large stock slide and increasing concern about a recession, with the The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P and Nasdaq all nearly falling 10% in the last five trading sessions. The losses continued Monday morning as all three indexes dropped at least 3.4%, before surging back up on an unsubstantiated 90-day tariff pause rumor the White House shot down, and then cooled off by market close as the Nasdaq managed a 0.1% gain on the day while the Dow and S&P dropped 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively. Trump’s tariffs have put the U.S. at risk of increased inflation and lesser economic growth.
Further Reading
Forbes Recession Tracker: Goldman, JPMorgan Say Recession Incoming If Trump Doesn’t Blink On Tariffs (Forbes)