Trump is continuously giving misleading picture on Hormuz strait creating confusion

Oil prices may shoot up to sky high if the supply line in Gulf is not restored 

By Anjan Roy

As in any war, conflicting narratives are emerging in Iran war and it is becoming increasingly difficult to get at what is happening on the ground. These have become all the more real as Iran has now started savage attacks on US facilities in the Gulf region and on Israel and Tel Aviv city. Besides, the relentless attacks on all oil industry capacities are further speeding out disaster for the global economy.

Oil prices, after coming down for a short while, have clawed back beyond $100 per barrel on Thursday, even in the wake of release of large quantities of oil from the strategic reserves of various countries. The Iranians are claiming their total black out of the Strait of Hormuz should drive oil prices to a $200 a barrel shortly. That could mean disaster for the global economy.

This gives Trump’s claims of normalising oil prices a total lie. Trump had observed that with large scale releases from strategic oil reserves and further pressures on freeing up Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would come down sharply. None of that happened.

Iran has claimed to have destroyed no less than twelve vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. US, on its part, claimed to have sunk some 16 Iranian navy vessels and an equal number of Iranian mine-laying ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has spread out mines along the Strait which make it extremely dangerous for vessel to pass through the channel without

The most dramatic among these differing perceptions is the one which gives away the stark differences between two principal players —US and Israel. While the US is seeking to paint a picture of definitive achievements of the military operations of the two allies, Israel is seeking to convey that the there is lot of military offensives still to be taken up.

US president, Donald Trump bragged that the campaign was going on very well and the objectives have been already achieved. He even had stated that there were few targets left in Iran yet to be targeted. He is already weaving a story that prepares for US withdrawal from a tricky situation.

Israel on the other hand said that there were plenty of unattended objectives which have yet to be achieved. Israel is looking at a much longer frame in which its principal enemy, Iran, is no longer in a position to mount another military campaign. The two have different views on long term objectives and what they wanted to finish.

The compulsions before Israel are apparent. Iran is mounting severe missile attacks and destructive offensives. Hence, Israel is seeking to tackle the problem at the origin.

If there had been one big victim of the war, it would be Donald Trump’s bravado. Despite Trump’s claims of forcing the Strait of Hormuz open with US military escorts for passing vessels, US defence forces have stated that they were not yet ready to undertake any escort services.

It is clear that going through Hormuz with commercial vessels in tow would be too dangerous and mean certain destruction. The US navy have stayed away from doing any escort sorties.

The other point of vainglorious claim of Donald Trump has been his claim that the stocks markets were particularly fond of him and markets had hit the highs as never before. What happened since the war was started, is that stocks have fallen sharply.

Along with that, the US Treasury bond yields have jumped, making US government’s borrowing cost shoot. This could have major impact on US fiscal position, which was already at ruinous levels.

Thirdly, the war has raised the risk perceptions thereby pushing up the exchange rate of the US dollar. This will further dent US ambitions for jacking up its exports through competitiveness.

All in all, it is high time for Donald Trump to seek an escape route from the current imbroglio over the Iran war. The US now wants to get out at all costs.

For Israel the opposite is true. Unless Iran is completely tamed and its military hobbled, Israel can face hostilities in near future, Israel wants to cripple Iran once for all, even if it s means dragging it for much longer. (IPA Service)