US-Israel-Iran War: After Strait of Hormuz, now Bab al-Mandeb – How could it hit world trade next?

If both chokepoints are disrupted at the same time, nearly a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply and a major portion of Asia-Europe trade may face immediate turbulence.

US-Israel-Iran War: The world’s energy lifelines are looking far more fragile. After the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has now hinted at pressure on another crucial maritime corridor – the Bab al-Mandeb. The strait is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and by extension the Indian Ocean.

If both chokepoints are disrupted at the same time, nearly a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply and a major portion of Asia-Europe trade may face immediate turbulence.

The warning came from Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and a long-time face within Iran’s foreign policy establishment. In an X post on April 5, he hinted that Iran’s allies may treat the Bab al-Mandeb the same way Tehran has approached Hormuz.

“The unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz,” he wrote.

He followed it with a more direct message aimed at Washington. “If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realise that the flow of international energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move.”

The warning came just days after US President Donald Trump threatened further strikes on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran did not reopen Hormuz.

Trump warned that the United States could target Iran’s power plants and bridges. He had earlier also threatened to bomb Iran’s desalination facilities.

Meanwhile, Iran has maintained that Hormuz is open to countries willing to negotiate safe passage, excluding vessels of the United States and Israel.

A narrow strait with international consequences

At its tightest point, the Bab al-Mandeb stretches only 29 kilometres wide and force ships into narrow shipping channels.

Its strategic importance has grown following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab al-Mandeb has become an alternative energy artery, especially for Gulf producers seeking routes to Europe and beyond.

It carries roughly 5 percent of international oil shipments. In 2024 alone, about 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum passed through this corridor. Beyond energy, nearly 10 percent of international trade flows through the Bab al-Mandeb, including container shipments from China, India and other Asian economies heading toward Europe.

If both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb face disruption, the consequences could be immediate. Analysts say this would effectively choke off roughly 25 percent of international oil and gas supply while simultaneously hitting container trade between Asia and Europe.

The implications would not be limited to energy markets. Rising fuel prices, shipping delays and supply chain disruptions could ripple across factories, supermarkets and petrol stations across the world.

Saudi Arabia’s evolving export routes

Saudi Arabia has already begun adapting to the changing maritime situation. With Hormuz facing uncertainty, Riyadh has turned to its Red Sea port of Yanbu. Oil flows to this port through the East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometre corridor linking the Abqaiq processing centre to the Red Sea coast. The pipeline is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco.

Earlier this year, the pipeline carried an average of 770,000 barrels per day in January and February. After the Hormuz disruption, its usage surged. By the end of March, flows reached the pipeline’s full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, reaching the highest levels ever recorded.

This development has made the Bab al-Mandeb even more crucial for Saudi exports and for international energy markets.

Houthis hold the key

Control of the Bab al-Mandeb depends on Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has ties with Iran and is a part of Tehran’s Axis of Resistance.

The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping. During the Gaza war, they targeted vessels they described as linked to Israel or the United States. The attacks raised insurance costs and forced many shipping companies to reroute vessels and reduce traffic through the Red Sea.

A ceasefire between the United States and the Houthis in May 2025 eased tensions and reopened the route. But recent developments suggest that the situation could once again change.

Since late March, the Houthis have launched missiles and drones toward Israel. Analysts suggest these strikes have so far been limited and appear designed as warnings rather than full participation in the ongoing war between US-Israel alliance and Iran.

They indicate that a full escalation would likely involve targeting shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb that would immediately halt commercial traffic through the Red Sea and trigger swift military responses.

A ‘nightmare scenario’ for international trade

Experts believe a simultaneous disruption of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would amount to one of the most severe shocks to international trade in recent decades.

Such a scenario could cripple shipping routes toward Europe and push international supply chains into crisis mode. It would place markets on edge and create volatility across energy, shipping and manufacturing sectors.

At the same time, analysts believe the Houthis may calculate risks carefully. While the Bab al-Mandeb offers strategic leverage, a full closure could invite a strong response from Saudi Arabia or a larger coalition. Such a move would considerably raise the stakes.