PC shipments are falling, but manufacturers are making more money selling pricier AI PCs

IDC expects average PC prices to jump 20% while shipments continue to decline

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Bottom line: PC makers are selling more expensive machines into a market with fewer available units, as tight memory supplies reshape product mix, pricing, and demand for AI-capable systems. That shift is helping manufacturers preserve – and in some cases expand – revenue even as global shipments decline, but it is also pushing the industry further away from the low-cost devices that once drove volume growth.

The pressure is originating in the AI infrastructure market, where demand for memory chips has driven up component costs and limited supply for other hardware categories.

The near-term winners are likely to be vendors with strong commercial exposure and premium AI offerings, while consumers and budget-conscious buyers face higher prices with little prospect of quick relief.

PC vendors have responded by concentrating production on higher-priced devices, particularly systems designed to run AI workloads locally. The strategy is reducing shipment volumes but, so far, generating higher revenue.

International Data Corporation reported that worldwide PC shipments fell 4.9% in the second quarter. The research firm expects average PC prices to rise 20% this year, followed by more modest increases in 2027, even as unit shipments continue to decline.

For manufacturers, pricing has become the mechanism for protecting revenue as fewer systems reach the market. "They have to offset the decrease in shipments with higher pricing to maintain revenue or grow revenue," IDC Director of Consumer Research Jitesh Ubrani told The Wall Street Journal.

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The results are already visible in quarterly earnings. HP said its personal systems segment, which includes its PC business, increased revenue 18% in the second quarter even as unit sales fell 16%. Dell's client solutions group posted a 20% revenue increase in its most recent quarter, while Lenovo reported nearly 30% revenue growth in PCs and smart devices.

That performance reflects a deliberate shift away from entry-level machines. With memory both expensive and scarce, vendors are allocating more components to premium systems, where higher selling prices can better absorb cost inflation and protect margins.

AI PCs are central to that shift. The term generally refers to systems equipped to handle certain AI processing on the device rather than relying entirely on cloud infrastructure. Such machines typically combine newer CPUs, GPUs, or dedicated neural-processing units with larger memory configurations – features that can increase both component requirements and retail prices.

Manufacturers are positioning those capabilities as a reason for businesses and consumers to accept higher prices. HP Chief Financial Officer Karen Parkhill said the company has increased the share of AI PCs in its shipments and expects the category to expand further. "We're proud to have an increased penetration of AI PCs today as part of our shipments," she told analysts, adding that the segment will be "a growing part as we look ahead."

Commercial customers may provide the strongest support for the market. UBS analyst David Vogt said business demand accounts for roughly 75% of PC market volume and should be relatively resilient, particularly as enterprises evaluate on-premises AI systems for sensitive or complicated workloads. That is especially relevant in regulated industries, where organizations may want tighter control over data and AI processing.

Still, the market faces limits. PCs must compete with servers, networking equipment, cloud services, and other priorities within enterprise technology budgets. Vogt also said some recent commercial demand may represent orders brought forward to avoid expected price increases rather than a sustained increase in purchasing.

Consumer demand could be more difficult to maintain. Shoppers may be less inclined than businesses to pay a significant premium for AI features, particularly if the practical benefits are unclear or software support remains uneven. Vogt pointed to HP's below-seasonal outlook for the current quarter as an early sign of that challenge. "That's a struggle that HP and Dell and Lenovo are going to have to grapple with," he said.

The underlying memory shortage is unlikely to provide relief soon. Ubrani does not expect supply conditions to improve before at least 2028. IDC's forecasts indicate that prices could begin to decline after that point, though they are not expected to return to 2025 levels.

For now, the PC industry's recovery is less about shipping more computers than selling a more lucrative mix of them. That model has helped vendors report stronger revenue despite falling volumes, but it also leaves buyers facing a market where waiting for a cheaper laptop may not deliver much near-term benefit.

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