Post-election appetite for South African exposure sees JSE shares soar

South Africa’s equity market is buzzing with momentum following a landmark election, and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is emerging as a standout performer. Shares of JSE Ltd., Africa’s largest stock and bond exchange operator, have surged nearly three times faster than the benchmark index, buoyed by rising trading fees, attractive dividends, and renewed investor optimism. Analysts see sustained growth ahead, signalling a brighter outlook for South Africa’s capital markets.

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By Mpho Hlakudi and Kerim Karakaya

Momentum in South Africa’s equity market sparked by a landmark election earlier this year is maintaining its pace, with the stock exchange’s own shares one of the targets for investors chasing returns. 

“One way to get exposure to the growth of Africa’s capital markets would be the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, which is a publicly listed company,” said Thea Jamison, managing director at Change Global Investment LLC, which has been buying the shares. 

JSE Ltd., which operates Africa’s biggest stock and bond exchanges and acts as a proxy for South African companies more broadly, has risen almost three times as fast as the benchmark index over the past four months. Political changes in South Africa bringing renewed interest from investors, coupled with rising trading fees and relatively cheap valuation, are making the exchange’s shares attractive, Jamison added. 

Read more: Magnus Heystek: The JSE’s slow demise as Ramaphoria turns to Dysphoria

The dividend yield, showing the return an investor can expect from dividends alone expressed as a percentage of the stock price, is 6.4% on a trailing 12-month basis and 6.8% based on Bloomberg dividend forecasts for the next 12 months. That’s the second highest among its peers behind the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

South African stocks have experienced their strongest third quarter for 11 years, with analysts tracked by Bloomberg seeing the gains extending over the coming 12 months. The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index has climbed 13% so far this year, heading for the best year since 2021, notching at least 13 record highs in the process and outpacing a rally in MSCI Inc.’s gauge of emerging-market equities.

The government of national unity, installed after May’s election, has spurred hopes of fixes for the energy and transport problems that have hobbled Africa’s most-industrialized economy, including its mining sector. Meanwhile, the country’s central bank lowered borrowing costs for a second successive meeting on Nov. 21 and said its modeling showed further cuts were in the offing, but that the outlook is uncertain.

“Stock exchanges can be seen as levered plays on a country’s macro environment,” said Gustavo Medeiros, head of global macro research at Ashmore in London, who is watching for accelerated economic growth among signs for improved investor sentiment toward South African equities.

Medeiros sees some financial and consumer stocks benefiting from an improving macro environment that is still “under appreciated” by international investors, who remain focused on US politics and China’s economic challenges.

Positive Momentum

“We have seen a lot of positive momentum in South Africa facing businesses on the JSE since the better-than-expected outcome of the national elections at the end of May and beginning of June,” said Andrew Dowse, a portfolio manager at Merchant West. “The primary driver of returns for the JSE is equity trade flow, which continues to improve as local managers tilt their view more favorably towards SA Inc. stocks.”

Merchant West Investments Pty Ltd., also known as Bridge Collective Investments RF Pty Ltd., is among the largest holders of JSE stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The portfolio manager sees recent initial public offerings, including Pick n Pay Stores Ltd. unbundling Boxer, as a “symptom of improving demand from investors to participate in a rally and their willingness to pay up for new investment opportunities.”

“Although the intention behind Boxer to float was largely to raise cash for Pick n Pay, the achieved price was at the top of the guidance range, showing good demand from local investors for companies that have reasonably good growth prospects,” he said.

Read also:

• Lesaka – JSE’s (only?) exponential tech stock is back on track, a play on SA’s informal sector
• 🔒 Thungela – JSE’s surprise top performer still looks cheap at the price
• New JSE rules opens way for 9.9% yielding, low risk ETF from COREshares

© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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