‘Sinners’ Is a Box Office Success (With a Big Asterisk)

Ryan Coogler’s original horror film was expected to sell a strong $40 million-plus in tickets over the weekend. But its profitability remains a long way off.

“Sinners” was on pace to sell about $43 million in tickets in North America from Thursday afternoon through Sunday, box office analysts said, a terrific result for an original, R-rated, slow-burning horror drama set in the 1930s and rooted in Black culture. Reviews were rapturous.

But the film — directed, written and produced by Ryan Coogler — was hugely expensive, analysts noted, costing Warner Bros. at least $150 million to make and market worldwide. The studio also agreed to demands by Mr. Coogler’s representatives for unusually generous compensation.

As a result, for Warner Bros. to make money, “Sinners” will need to attract substantial crowds in the weeks ahead. “It’s an excellent opening for a period horror film, except that it’s hard to call it completely successful because of its enormous budget,” David A. Gross, a film consultant, said in an email.

In a statement, Pam Abdy and Mike De Luca, co-chairs of Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, said they were “thrilled” by the “stellar” turnout. “Warner Bros. Pictures remains committed to bringing singular in-theater experiences to audiences looking for bold movies, both original and those based on beloved existing properties,” they said.

Ms. Abdy and Mr. De Luca have been on a victory lap of late. “A Minecraft Movie,” which they put into production in consultation with David Zaslav, the chief executive of Warner Bros. Discovery, was expected to be No. 1 at the domestic box office over the weekend — for the third weekend in a row. Ticket sales for “A Minecraft Movie,” made with Legendary Entertainment, are expected to total about $45 million from Friday through Sunday, for a cumulative $348 million in North America since arriving on April 4.

“Sinners,” which stars Michael B. Jordan as diabolical twins named Smoke and Stack, came in second place and received an A grade in CinemaScore exit polls, boding well for word of mouth. The audience was about 50 percent Black, according to exit polling services, suggesting that there was room for the film to broaden its reach among other demographics.

The turnout for “Sinners” reflected, in part, the bond that Mr. Coogler, 38, has forged with movie fans since arriving in Hollywood in 2013. Mr. Coogler, whose credits include the “Black Panther” and “Creed” franchises, can fill seats with his mere presence on a marquee — an extremely rare power, especially for someone who doesn’t appear onscreen.

Warner Bros. was so eager to be in business with him that it agreed to spend $90 million to make “Sinners,” an eye-popping amount for an original film set in the Great Depression and carrying an R rating. (Even if it does have dancing vampires.) For comparison, Jordan Peele made the R-rated “Get Out,” an original horror movie set in modern times, for about $4.5 million in 2017. Mr. Peele’s similar “Us” cost $20 million in 2019.

To seal the deal with Mr. Coogler — other studios were also bidding on the project — Warner Bros. agreed to give him a cut of gross ticket sales (before the studio deducts costs). This arrangement, known in Hollywood as first-dollar gross, was once relatively common for top stars and directors but has all but ended since the DVD boom went bust.

Warner Bros. also agreed to relinquish its ownership of the film after 25 years. Mr. Coogler will then own it, despite not paying for it. This type of concession is even rarer for studios to make. Some rival film companies were horrified that Warner Bros. would give a film away, even after a period of time.

When they made the deal with Mr. Coogler, Ms. Abdy and Mr. De Luca were under pressure from Mr. Zaslav to attract top filmmakers to the studio. Warner Bros. had seen an exodus of talent after a decision by AT&T, which owned the studio from 2018 to 2022, to give priority to streaming over theaters.

Mr. De Luca and Ms. Abdy rose in their careers through the traditional film business, where losses are sometimes tolerated (wild gambles on auteurs are taken) in hopes of securing relationships that pay returns in the long run. In other words, “Sinners” could end up as a loss leader — an unprofitable project nonetheless viewed inside the company as a success because it delivers other forms of value, most notably enhancing Warner’s reputation in Hollywood’s artistic community.

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