‘Captain America: Brave New World’ Tops Expectations With $289 Million

Director Julius Onah’s Marvel sequel Captain America: Brave New World flew past expectations this weekend, topping $289 million worldwide with stronger holds internationally than domestically.

‘Captain America: Brave New World’

Early numbers indicate Captain America: Brave New World’s stateside gross topped $28 million but came in under the expected $30 million. That’s after a $100 million bow the previous weekend, for a roughly 72% decline – but that’s due to the fact last weekend was a four-day holiday, so a larger falloff was expected.

It was overseas markets that put wind beneath Captain America: Brave New World’s wings and helped it climb past $35 million. Despite what could’ve been growing international disinterest in or outright boycotting of a film flying the U.S. flag, those audiences dropped just 55% outside of China, a surprisingly strong hold all things considered.

And a welcome one, since domestic ticket sales are in the “fine” category perhaps, but significantly down from the Captain America franchise’s past box office heights, and the second weekend hold was not a worst-case outcome but also failed to demonstrate significant staying power in the face of that B- audience grade from Cinemascore.

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That said, the fact Brave New World approached $300 million on its second weekend helps Marvel Studios avoid the prospect of a flop to kick off the new year.

No doubt the star wattage of Harrison Ford still shines bright enough that, pared with lead star Anthony Mackie’s fanbase and charm as Captain America, no doubt adds some oomph to the film’s draw. Add to that a Hulk, some aerial flight scenes evoking memories of the first Iron Man movie, and the tonal/stylistic impression of Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and Brave New World is so far overcoming the baggage of that B- grade and bad reviews.

We’re still in post-COVID theatrical era, no matter what anyone tries to tell us, and a big part of the country hammered with bad weather and inflation right now. So this looks not so much like a big win for the MCU, but at least a solid “hold the line” moment that in turn helps position the next Marvel movie Thunderbolts* for a decent run starting May 2nd, ahead of main event Fantastic Four: First Steps later this summer on July 25th.

‘Captain America: Brave New World’ And Marvel’s Brand

Part of the mission for Captain America this time around was to avoid the loss of good will and box office positioning achieved by last year’s Deadpool & Wolverine, which was widely seen as proof Marvel was “back” and would avoid further disappointment and face-plants at the box office.

Indeed, superhero cinema seems to be trimming a lot of the fat that’s contributed to the genre’s loss of gloss from its heady days of late-2010s. Warner Bros. Discovery shut down its disappointing DCEU, and Sony cancelled its failed Spider-Man Universe, both of which contributed to the overall decline in popularity and reputation for the superhero genre.

So with Sony refocused on just making great Spider-Man movies and the DCU about to take flight with the magnificent-looking Superman on July 11th, hopefully we’ve turned a corner and things will keep improving for the genre – and for Captain America: Brave New World.

Where Will 'Captain America: Brave New World’ Land?

Captain America: Brave New World should have relatively smooth skies ahead for several weeks, so if it can continue overperforming then it might gain some traction with word of mouth from audiences showing up despite the film’s mixed buzz and bad reviews. I think a performance north of $400 million is in the cards, and the question is whether it’ll wind up on the lower end of potential and finish in $420 million territory, or have enough momentum to glide toward $440 million and beyond.

With so many weeks ahead until the April main competition hits town, Captain America: Brave New World could benefit from the few holidays sprinkled into the coming weeks, too. If weekly drops slow and those holidays bring out curious viewers, then Brave New World just might even benefit from a little boost when April holidays hit. That could help soften the blow a bit when A Minecraft Movie builds its all-ages crowd the weekend of April 4th.

But that’s nearly six weeks away, so in the meantime Captain America: Brave New World needs to finish February with enough of a hold to take whatever hit Night of the Zoopocalypse can land in early March, without losing too much momentum before the live-action Disney remake Snow White arrives as the first major release before April.

Captain America: Brave New World needs to hold onto whatever good will it’s generated with international audiences and hope for much better weekly holds in North America if it hopes to finish on the higher end of potential, but at least it has avoided a collapse that would’ve dimmed hopes for Thunderbolts* being a clear success and could’ve jeopardized the Marvel MCU brand enough for Fantastic Four: First Steps to stumble.

The Monkey turned out to be a hit with audiences and critics alike, fueling the low-budget ($10 million) film’s impressive $14 million opening off minimalist viral marketing and must-see buzz off its trailers and intentionally-stirred controversy (television trailers for the film were rejected by several networks for being too violent).

However, while I suspect The Monkey will hold well and benefit from positive word of mouth, I also think it had potential to open toward $20 million where I’d have then expected it to be more of an obstacle to Captain America: Brave New World’s upcoming weekly holds.

Some pressure is off Captain America: Brave New World in that regard, then, and every little bit helps when it could be the difference in whether the film covers production costs at the box office. Additional revenue from home release, merchandising, and other sources will contribute enough to ensure the film avoids red ink, I’m sure. But this is Marvel, and they want profits at the multiplex, so we’ll see if they get their wish.