Hurricane Melissa was made 4 TIMES more likely by climate change

by · Mail Online

Hurricane Melissa – the most powerful storm in Jamaica's history – was made four times more likely by climate change, according to a study.

The catastrophic category 5 hurricane struck the island on Tuesday, bringing sustained winds that peaked at 185mph, flash floods and landslides.

It has left a trail of destruction through the Caribbean, with dozens confirmed dead and homes obliterated.

Now, experts have warned that our over–reliance on oil, gas and coal increased both the likelihood and intensity of the storm.

Looking ahead, hurricanes like this will only get worse unless global warming is urgently curbed, they added.

'Man–made climate change clearly made Hurricane Melissa stronger and more destructive,' Professor Ralf Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said.

'These storms will become even more devastating in the future if we continue overheating the planet by burning fossil fuels.

'Jamaica had plenty of time and experience to prepare for this storm, but there are limits to how countries can prepare and adapt. Adaption to climate change is vital but it is not a sufficient response to global warming.'

This chart shows how the hurricane's wind speed has been affected by climate change, with the orange line representing speeds during today's climate compared to the blue line which marks the pre–industrial era before global warming
An aerial view of destroyed buildings following the passage of Hurricane Melissa, in Black River, St. Elizabeth, Jamaica on October 29, 2025
Electrical poles are down as a man bikes through the destroyed neighborood of North Street following the passage of Hurricane Melissa, in Black River, Jamaica on October 29, 2025

Professor Toumi's team used the Imperial College Storm Model for their study. This collates a database of millions of simulated tropical cyclone tracks, allowing scientists to determine the likelihood of a given storm's wind speed impacting any location in the world.

They found that climate change boosted Melissa's wind speed by seven per cent – the equilavent of 11mph.

In a cooler world without climate change, a Melissa–type hurricane would have made landfall once every 8,000 years, they said.

But in today's climate, with 1.3°C warming, it has become four times more likely – with such an event now expected once every 1,700 years.

The researchers estimate that in a world with 2°C of warming, wind speeds would be even higher and the damages would be greater.

Preliminary analysis by Enki Research put the direct damage to physical assets in Jamaica at $7.7 billion – or about 37 per cent of the country's GDP.

The researchers estimate that in a world without climate change, a weaker hurricane would have been about 12 per cent less damaging.

Jamaica now faces an enormous relief effort to help the roughly 400,000 people reportedly affected, in a country where more than two–thirds of its population live within 5km (3.1 miles) of the sea.

Melissa is one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record. A US Air Force Reserve crew from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, known as the 'Hurricane Hunters,' flew through the eye of the storm on October 27, 2025 as Melissa was over the Caribbean
Melissa struck Jamaica earlier this week, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. Researchers say the storm was made four times more likely by climate change.
An aerial view of the destroyed Black River Market following the passage of Hurricane Melissa, in Black River, St. Elizabeth, Jamaica on October 29, 2025

Recent climate-related disasters  

  • Texas floods (July 2025)
  • Western European heatwaves (June 2025)
  • India and Pakistan heatwave (April 2025) 
  • Argentina floods (March 2025) 
  • Japan and South Korea wildfires (March 2025) 
  • Cyclone Zeila (February 2025)  
  • California wildfires (January 2025)
  • Storm Eowyn (January 2024) 

Jamaican hospitals have been pushed to the brink by floodwaters and there is an urgent need for basic supplies. Hundreds and thousands of residents are without power and basic telecommunications.

Before it made landfall, the hurricane underwent extreme and rapid intensification from Saturday 25 October, with wind speeds rising by 70mph in just 24 hours.

This intensification is at the extremes of what has ever been observed.

When it hit Jamaica several days later, it lashed the island with as much as 76cm of rainfall and winds reaching 185mph.

The neighbouring islands of Haiti and the Dominican Republic had already been hit by the storm, where it destroyed crops, drove food shortages and caused flooding.

Co–author Dr Emily Theokritoff, a research associate in climate damage attribution, said: 'What we show in this study is only a direct and partial snapshot of the total costs inflicted by Hurricane Melissa over time and across several Caribbean countries.

'Nevertheless, it illustrates how climate injustice unfolds: small island developing states bear very little responsibility for the climate crisis yet endure some of its worst impacts.

'As we approach COP30, this is a stark reminder of both the economic logic of reducing emissions now and the moral imperative to rapidly scale up international finance for loss and damage and adaptation in the most vulnerable countries.'

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Commenting on the storm Professor Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis an Research Units group, said: 'Climate change, expressed through the record–breaking warm ocean temperatures that Melissa has been traversing has, inevitably, had an impact on the storm.

'Without such deep warm waters, the storm would have caused cool waters to upwell and effectively throttled itself.

'The record warm ocean temperatures also mean more water has evaporated from the oceans leading to even heavier precipitation.'

However, he added that there is 'also a healthy dose of weather in the mix', with conditions fueling the storm.

What are hurricanes?

Hurricane is another word for a tropical cyclone that forms specifically in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Oceans. 

They refer to a revolving storm formed over tropical or sub-tropical oceans. 

Tropical cyclones start as clusters of clouds which amalgamate and rotate to form a tropical depression. 

When the sustained wind speeds reach 39mph it becomes a tropical storm and is assigned a name. 

When wind speeds reach 74mph, the tropical cyclone is referred to as a hurricane, typhoon or simply a cyclone, depending on where it is on the globe. 

By this stage they can be 300 to 500 miles across and up to five to six miles high. 

As these storms travel the wind, rain and storm surge destroy the shoreline, villages and cities in their path. 

When they make landfall they begin to decrease in strength because they no longer have the ocean water from which to gain energy. However, they are still dangerous and can cause much damage.