Astronomers Spot An Asteroid Hurtling Towards Earth With A Chance Of Impact

Yes, there's a chance that a recently spotted asteroid named 2024 YR4 could strike Earth in 2032, but experts are deeming the 196-foot wide small-body a low 1-in-83 strike risk, although others believe the closeness of the approach path to our planet in eight years still warrants some due caution. Still, we're usually curious about the what-ifs, so let's talk about that a bit.

First identified by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in December 27 last year, asteroid 2024 YR4, at that time, was moving away from Earth at a distance of 515,116 miles. The next close-approach window will be sometime in December 2028. Based on NASA JPL Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) calculations, there's a 1.2% chance of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth. CNEOS does add the caveat that such preliminary calculations "can easily be inaccurate by a factor of a few, and occasionally by a factor of ten or more."

CNEOS also pushes the assumption that IF 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it could happen on close-approach paths between 2032 and 2074 with 2032 (December 22, to be precise) deemed as the year with the great chance of impact. Even then, the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs)—puts the asteroid at risk level 3, whereby 0 is a negligibly small chance of collision and 10 indicating a collision is certain with an ensuing global disaster.

If, however, December 22, 2032 became an actual impact event, experts predict that the risk corridor would stretch from South America to the sub-Saharan Africa and across much of southern Asia. While the composition and speed 2024 YR4 at that time is still largely unknown, as it is, the asteroid is roughly the size of the 1908 Tunguska rock. The Tuguska event carried the same energy as 50 million tons of TNT when it exploded in the atmosphere over unpopulated Russia, flattening 80 million trees over 830 miles by some estimates. While not necessarily Earth-ending, 2024 YR4 could still cause quite a bit of damage.

Ultimately, it will be its next close pass from Earth in 2028 where scientist hope to gain greater understanding of 2024 YR4, particularly to determine the composition of the rock, as well as to get a better estimate of its true dimensions.