Trump and Putin's carve-up of Ukraine must be wake-up call for Starmer

The last time the big powers carved up Eastern Europe was at Yalta in February 1945.

Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt agreed to Joseph Stalin's demand that Eastern European nations bordering Russia should be subject to the influence of the Soviet regime.

In fact, the two great Western leaders had little alternative because Russian troops had just driven the Germans out of Poland, and controlled virtually the entire country.

The Russians incorporated 70,000 square miles of Polish territory into the Soviet Union (an area larger than England and Wales combined), and quickly installed a client government. By way of compensation, Poland acquired 40,000 square miles of what had been part of Germany.

The future of Ukraine is being determined in a similar manner by the great powers. As Poland was reshaped following Yalta, so Ukraine is about to have its borders redrawn by Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

However, there is one key difference. At Yalta – which ironically enough is in the Crimea, seized by Putin from Ukraine in 2014 – there was one Western European power present, namely Britain.

The destiny of Ukraine, by contrast, is being shaped by a Russian dictator and a mercenary New York real estate tycoon. Not only is Ukraine itself effectively excluded from negotiations, as was Poland 80 years ago, but Britain and every other European power are mere spectators.

How extraordinary – and humiliating. Sir Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron call meetings and look important. Our PM bangs on about a 'coalition of the willing' – nations led by Britain and France which will supposedly keep the peace in Ukraine if there is a settlement, though the Russians have vetoed the idea and the Americans aren't keen on it.

All of this is mere posturing since neither Starmer nor Macron are at the negotiating table. They are likely to have the most peripheral influence on whatever is agreed by Donald Trump and his twisted Russian counterpart.

Ukraine is a country in the heart of Europe. It was illegally invaded by Russia three years ago, and has suffered the loss of about a fifth of its territory, while thousands of its civilians and soldiers have been killed. Yet Europe can only look on, feebly and helplessly.

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Suddenly, Starmer doesn't seem too inept. Will he now take on zealots like Miliband and Rayner?

There is one lesson, which European leaders should absorb as they play being statesmen and flit from one futile summit to another. Never again should Britain and Europe allow other powers to decide the future of their continent.

We can none of us be certain but it appears that the cynical sellout of Ukraine by Donald Trump is now well underway.

Nothing was ceded by Putin in his 90-minute telephone conversation with Trump on Tuesday. The Russian leader wouldn't agree to the 30-day truce that Ukraine had accepted.

What Putin appeared to give was in fact a gain. The 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure is calculated to benefit his country because Ukraine has recently targeted such sites in Russia with considerable success.

Putin outrageously demanded during his talk with Trump that during the partial truce – which is no kind of truce at all – there should be a complete cessation of military and intelligence support to Ukraine. Neither the EU nor Britain will accept this condition. Putin wants to weaken his enemy without offering the slightest concession.

Both Russia and Ukraine have already accused each other of breaking the agreement. As German defence minister Boris Pistorius sarcastically pointed out, attacks had 'not eased at all in the first night after this supposedly ground-breaking, great phone call'.

No one should be surprised that the vainglorious Trump has described his conversation with Putin as 'very good and productive'. He said his shorter call with President Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday was 'very good', which in Trump-speak means nothing.

Meanwhile the Kremlin has declared that Putin and Trump 'trust each other'. This is probably only too true – in the sense that two rival mobsters may trust each other because they recognise one another's low motives.

I suppose we shouldn't dismiss the possibility that Putin will overplay his hand and offer Trump so little that even the American president will be forced to walk away. He needs to present a deal to the world in which Russia can be seen to have given something.

What he wants is pretty clear. Russia will cease its war in Ukraine but hang on to most of the land it has taken. Ukraine won't be a member of Nato (Trump has already stated that) but may be allowed to join the EU. The United States will get a chunk of future mineral revenue. Zelensky may have to stand down.

Before that happens the Ukrainian president will resist the capitulation that Trump intends to force on him. He'll draw some comfort from the assurances of European nations that they will continue to supply him with arms. But he will know in his heart that Ukraine can't continue the war for long without the support of Uncle Sam.

Such an outcome will of course be dangerous for Britain and Europe as well as injurious to Ukraine. It will leave Russia an almost total victor, able to regenerate its armed forces, enjoying at least a partial relief from sanctions, and ready to strike again at a time and in a place of its own choosing.

Is there anything we can do? Not now. It's pointed out that in 2024 almost 60 per cent of military aid to Ukraine came from European nations plus Canada, but it is fanciful to suppose that Europe alone could supply all of Ukraine's needs. If only.

There is however one thing we can and must do in the longer term. Rearm. Rearm so that we are never again dependent on the whims of an American president. Rearm so that, with European allies, we are able to deter and, if necessary, resist Russian aggression.

Sir Keir Starmer has won plaudits for the way in which he has conducted himself on the world stage in recent weeks. But it is all an act. He pretends to be strong but his country is weak, and his modest ambitions for increasing defence expenditure aren't going to change that.

The Prime Minister talks a big game about Europe being 'at a crossroads in history' but his actions do not match his rhetoric. He hasn't prepared this country for the immense national effort that will be needed because he has no proper concept of it himself.

So he raids the foreign aid budget for a few billions, and the welfare budget for a few more, and nothing much changes. Maybe in the next Parliament we'll spend a bit more on defence. If we can.

We're not alone, of course. Most European powers have been at least as feckless. We have farmed out the responsibility for defending our continent to the Americans, and the Americans under this particular unreliable president have decided that they want to do it their own way.

If the despicable spectacle of Trump and Putin carving up Ukraine in their own interests doesn't finally wake up our somnolent leaders, I really don't know what will.