As Xi and Biden Meet, Trump and Uncertainty Loom Large

The two leaders will meet in Peru, where China has steadily expanded its influence in a challenge to the United States in its own region.

President Biden and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, have sparred for years about how the world should be ordered.

Mr. Biden, who has described Mr. Xi as a “dictator,” has said the preservation of democracy was the “defining challenge of our age.” Mr. Xi has accused the United States of being the “biggest source of chaos” in the world and warned against dangerous Western liberal ideas.

Now, as the two meet as world leaders for probably the last time in Peru on Saturday, it is Mr. Biden’s vision of the world that appears to be in retreat. The U.S. president is exiting the global stage with his stature diminished after Americans voted Donald J. Trump back into power.

Mr. Xi, on the other hand, remains China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, unfettered by term limits and surrounded by loyalists. He has blamed China’s economic troubles on American “containment.” He has expanded Beijing’s influence worldwide, including in what the United States considers its own backyard — a point Mr. Xi drove home this week by inaugurating a $3.5 billion Chinese-funded deepwater port at the start of his visit to Peru.

The Biden administration says the president wants to use the meeting in Peru, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, to challenge Mr. Xi on Chinese hacking, human rights violations and threats against Taiwan. Mr. Xi, who has bristled against being lectured by the West, is unlikely to pay much heed to Mr. Biden — and might see the contrast in their political standing as a vindication of his views.

“Part of Xi likely privately celebrated the defeat of the Democrats in the U.S. as showing the strength of the Chinese system,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London. “He will probably just go through the motions in his bilateral with Biden. He will almost certainly not make any significant concession to Biden on anything.”

The future of Mr. Biden’s signature policy toward China, which centers on competing without straying into conflict and on rallying like-minded democracies to counter Beijing, is unclear. Mr. Xi is likely to reiterate that the world is big enough for both superpowers and that they need to get along, in a signal to President-elect Trump, who has a penchant for confrontation and has vowed to impose steep tariffs on China.

China knows that “after Trump takes office, it is very likely that many of the promises made by Biden, many of the policies adopted or implemented measures will be completely reversed,” said Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. As power changes hands in the United States, the country’s foreign policy has become increasingly inconsistent, Mr. Xin said, like “sesame cakes being flipped” on a hot griddle.

And after Mr. Trump takes power, the relationship between the countries could become more volatile. His picks for top posts in his administration — including Representative Michael Waltz for national security adviser and Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state — are known for having spent years thinking about how best to pressure Beijing and change its behavior.

“Throughout the first Trump term, the Chinese made fun of President Trump and American democracy as a joke,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “This time they are taking him much more seriously.”

As competition between the two superpowers has intensified, raising concerns about a war or an economic crisis, Mr. Xi has sought to show that he is doing his part to maintain peace with the United States for the sake of global stability.

Though Mr. Biden adopted many of the Trump administration’s tough measures, he did so with the addition of intensive diplomacy. That is credited with helping prevent a rivalry — one that spans military power, technology, trade and space — from veering into conflict. But frictions continue to pile on: This week, the United States accused China of a vast hacking campaign targeting American telecommunications companies, a claim China rejected as disinformation.

Whether Mr. Trump will seek stable ties with Mr. Xi is a question that looms large as he prepares to take office. Tensions over China’s claims in the South China Sea and over Taiwan, as well as Beijing’s support for Russia, make relations between Beijing and Washington a minefield that could quickly plunge the world into a crisis.

For Mr. Xi, his trip to South America — he will also go to Brazil — is also a chance to assert that China is a force for stability as a counter to Mr. Trump’s unpredictability. And there might be nowhere more pointed for China to flex its geopolitical muscle than in South America, given the region’s proximity to the United States and its sphere of influence.

China has been aggressively courting Peru over the last decade, replacing the United States as the country’s top trading partner in 2014. China says Peru, which has a substantial ethnic Chinese population, is the second-biggest recipient of Chinese investment in Latin America. In July, a Chinese military delegation marched in Peru’s Independence Day parade for the first time, along with the South American delegations that traditionally take part.

“China cherishes its traditional friendship with Peru,” Mr. Xi said on Thursday as he met with President Dina Boluarte, noting that it was their third meeting in one year. He also waxed poetic about links between Inca and ancient Chinese civilizations.

Later, the two leaders ceremonially opened the Chinese-backed port in the city of Chancay, 40 miles north of Lima. The virtual event featured drone footage of the complex, a sprawling facility along the Pacific Coast outfitted with giant blue cranes bearing the name of China’s largest state-owned shipping company. Mr. Xi also visited the Callao air force base in Lima.

China’s growing coziness with Peru highlights China’s strategy of courting smaller powers, particularly those that feel neglected by the West.

But China’s influence in the country has drawn concern. Allegations of corruption have trailed several contracts won by Chinese companies. Washington has warned that the Chancay port could be used one day by Chinese warships to threaten the United States.

Last year, Gen. Laura J. Richardson of the U.S. Army, who is now retired, warned that China was “right under our nose” because of its investments in South America. Those include telecommunications networks, railroads and space infrastructure.

“They’re on the 20-yard line to our homeland,” she said.

Berry Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong.

More on U.S.-China Relations

• New Phase of Rivalry: With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Beijing is expecting more volatility and competition with the United States, though a lackluster economy may limit China’s options for pushing back.
• Trade Tensions: As Trump readies the next phase of his trade war with China, he is confronting a country that is more dependent on exports yet is less reliant on American markets.
• A Higher Price for U.S. Support: Taiwan appears to be preparing for a tenser relationship with Trump, who has called for the island to spend more on its own defense and complained about its semiconductor dominance.
• The Chips Competition: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the maker of most of the world’s cutting-edge computer chips, will halt shipments to Chinese companies after some of its chips ended up with Huawei.
• Preparing for War: As the chances of war with China increase, the big and cumbersome U.S. Army is trying to transform itself to deploy quickly to Asia, if needed. It is an inherently dangerous business.