Tinubu, Atiku, Obi: Oxford Metro Poll Predicts Potential Winner of 2027 Election

• President Bola Tinubu finished ahead of Peter Obi in the Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, which closed on September 7
• The poll recorded 69,110 total approved responses, with Tinubu winning 35.41% and Obi placing second with 33.86%
• Regional data showed a strikingly different electoral picture from the 2023 presidential election, with Tinubu leading in 20 states and the FCT

President Bola Tinubu has topped the Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll ahead of Labour Party's Peter Obi, with a margin of 1,067 responses separating the two leading contenders.

The poll, which closed on September 7, gathered a final analytical dataset of 69,110 approved and unflagged responses. Tinubu drew 24,469 responses, or 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi came in second with 23,402 responses, representing 33.86 per cent. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar placed third with 18,430 responses, accounting for 26.67 per cent of overall participation.

2027 election: Regional breakdown

Vanguard reported that the poll's geographical spread told a different story from the 2023 presidential election result. Tinubu, who won 12 states in that contest, led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in this survey. Obi and Atiku each recorded the highest response counts in eight states apiece.

At the zonal level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central. His South-West tally stood at 10,968 responses, or 43.53 per cent of the zone's participation. He received 4,129 responses in the North-West, representing 43.10 per cent, and 6,370 in the North-Central, accounting for 36.97 per cent.

Obi's clearest lead came from the South-East, where he pulled in 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of the zone's total. He also led the South-South with 2,389 responses, or 41.48 per cent. Atiku dominated the North-East with 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of that region's participation.

Notable northern states that had backed Atiku in 2023, including Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, showed Tinubu leading in this poll. He also led in Kano, where NNPP candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso had won the presidential vote in 2023.

Tinubu, Atiku, Obi: Narrow margins in key states

Several individual state results underlined how slim the gaps were. In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi's 5,278, with Atiku receiving 3,954. In Rivers State, Tinubu polled 975 responses compared to Obi's 892, leaving an 83-response gap between the two. In Kogi, only 110 total responses were recorded, with Tinubu receiving 39, Atiku 38, and Obi 33.

Beyond the top three, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, Seyi Makinde got 519, and former President Goodluck Jonathan received 284. Among smaller figures, Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor got six, and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu recorded two.

Another 638 participants chose "I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet," while 204 were undecided and 122 selected "Other Candidate."

The poll also noted a significant geographical concentration of participation: Lagos and the FCT together accounted for 54.44 per cent of all responses. The final dataset included 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic regional tallies.

Atiku's camp rejects Tinubu's defence of INEC

Legit.ng earlier reported that ADC chieftain Kenneth Okonkwo criticised President Bola Tinubu for defending INEC over bias allegations, saying the electoral body had not earned public confidence.

Okonkwo, who speaks for Atiku Abubakar ahead of 2027, cited concerns over security and governance as reasons Tinubu may struggle to win re-election.

The ADC spokesperson also accused the ruling APC of attempting to weaken opposition parties and undermine Nigeria's democratic process before 2027.