How Trump vs Harris in US elections could affect ties with India

While some have suggested that the result of the elections will have minimal to no effect on the bilateral ties between the US and India, there are sectors that could witness a changing dynamic, depending on who wins the race.

In Short

• Defence policies are likely to remain stable
• Trade policies could differ between both candidates
• Social issues might be prioritised differently

Few elections around the world turn heads like the US presidential election does, especially when its frontrunners are sharply contrasting in their ways and plans to run the country. Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are just that.

As the two candidates gear up for the final phase of the election, the country’s allies and adversaries are closely watching as the results are bound to have ripples that will touch many nations.

India is one of them. While some have suggested that the result of the elections will have minimal to no effect on the bilateral ties between the US and India, there are sectors that could witness a changing dynamic, depending on who wins the race.

Defence

When it comes to defence, the US will make no compromises. Especially in the Indo-Pacific region where, in recent years, China has been a growing influence. India continues to act as a deterrent which the US values and regardless of who takes the White House, that sentiment is expected to continue as it has in the past decade.

Donald Trump was the one who initiated the Indo-Pacific alliance aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region, something China has been looking to disrupt. Keeping that in mind, the former president will keep that agenda as it is by maintaining the defence partnership and contributing to improving the collaboration between the nations, as was suggested by a US think tank expert.

Harris is expected to do no differently in this case. With China on the rise, Harris, too, would prefer to maintain peace in the region with the help of the nations involved. That too now, when tensions in the South China Sea continue to fluctuate.

Trade

Now for the divergence. Trade is something both candidates have a different outlook on. The former president is determined on bringing back his ‘America First’ agenda, which translates to improving and investing in domestic industries and reducing reliance on the global chain.

Trump showcased this in his last tenure when he imposed high tariffs on imports and removed the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) that is aimed at improving trade in developing countries.

During a recent rally in Michigan, he called India “an abuser” when it comes to import tariffs.

He has already publicly shared his intentions of imposing a 10% tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China.

“Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world, and the tariff will be substantial,” Trump said during the second presidential debate, adding his proposed tariff would raise “hundreds of billions of dollars.”

The tariffs imposed by Trump in his tenure were extended by the Biden administration, but it remains unclear whether Harris intends to do the same. She did respond to Trump’s proposed tariff plan during the debate by calling it a “sales tax” being imposed on the American people.

Unlike Trump, Harris is not inclined to weaponise tariffs in a bid to reduce reliance on the global market. She is instead focused on taxing the American rich and giving tax breaks to the middle class.

Social Issues

This could be an interesting factor to keep an eye on. Social issues in the region will be something Harris is expected to prioritise, especially keeping her Indian heritage in mind. While a Trump administration will not always be so inclined to, as the former president’s previous tenure showcased.

A good example to take is the crisis in Bangladesh. The previous regime was toppled, and a new government took power, sending the region into disarray. It being a bordering neighbour to India and the previous regime being a good partner of the country, the situation is far from ideal – especially when China has been lurking and encroaching on Indian territory.

The Biden administration has not said much about the Bangladesh crisis either – a worrying trend and something that India would not want to see continued if Harris takes office.