Khamenei unwell, Iran might have secretly elected its next supreme leader

Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei is reported to be seriously unwell. Amid concerns over his health, reports emerged of a succession battle. It is being said now that his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been chosen to lead the Shia Islamic nation amid a confrontation with Israel.

In Short

• Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei is seriously unwell
• Secret meeting held to decide Khamenei's successor, reports say
• Mojtaba Khamenei, second son of Khamenei, might be chosen as successor

Amid a confrontation with Israel, Iran has a crisis at home. Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei is said to be seriously unwell, and his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been chosen to lead the Shia Islamic nation. Reports say that Mojtaba could take over even before his father's death. This could have ramifications for Iran, given the situation in West Asia.

Iran International reported that Mojtaba Khamenei had secretly been chosen to lead Iran as its supreme leader. The report by Iran International, a Persian-language media outlet with links to Iranian rebels, was quoted by Ynet News.

The report by Iran International comes just weeks after The New York Times reported on a secret battle in Iran to succeed Ali Khamenei as the supreme leader.

Ali Khamenei is 85, and his health condition has been deteriorating for some time now.

He appeared in public on October 4, with a rifle beside him, to address Iranians and lead the prayers for Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah chief, who was killed in an Israel attack.

In its report, Iran International claimed that a surprise meeting was convened on September 26 of the 60 members of Iran's Assembly of Experts on Ali Khamenei's orders.

The Assembly members were asked to decide on his successor immediately.

"Despite initial opposition to both the decision and the process, the Assembly ultimately reached a unanimous agreement to designate Mojtaba as the successor following the leader's and his representatives' insistence, which allegedly included direct threats," reported YNet News, quoting the Persian media outlet.

It was threats that helped keep the meeting and its outcome under wraps for five weeks, according to the reports.

WHY IRAN'S LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION CAN FACE UNCERTAINITY AND STRUGGLES

After the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, the succession process was relatively unresisted. There were five factors behind it.

The presence of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who could united centre, right and left-wing officials. He was the kingmaker, according to Iran International.

After he decided, Khamenei's rise, there was little resistance.

But Khamenei's successor would see a more difficult succession. There is no one like Rafsanjani in the power centre currently and many close to Khamenei's power centre are even disliked by the Iranian people.

Khamenei had been groomed as Khomeini's successor and was President before becoming the Supreme Leader of Iran.

While Ebrahim Raisi had been groomed for the job, his death in a helicopter crash in Azerbaijan on May 19, 2024, further complicated the matter of succession in Iran.

The ousting of Qasem Soleimani by President Donald Trump in 2020 also played this role who had kingmaker potential.

High officials have been isolated and no power centres have emerged.

Both political and social movements are also active such as protests after Mahasa Amini was killed in custody.

WHO IS MOJTABA KHAMENEI

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was born in 1969 in Mashhad in northeastern Iran. He pursued theology, under the wing of his father and other prominent scholars. He continues to teach theology at the Qom seminary, the largest Islamic seminary in Iran, now as well.

He also has three children with his spouse Zahra Haddad-Adel.

In Iran's 2005 and 2009 elections, Mojtaba Khamenei supported Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and was reportedly involved in securing Ahmadinejad’s 2009 victory.

Following Ahmadinejad’s win, protests erupted in June 2009, with Mojtaba allegedly playing a key role in leading efforts to suppress the anti-government demonstrations.

However, their relationship later deteriorated when Ahmadinejad accused Mojtaba of embezzling funds from the state treasury.