How rebel TMC MPs' merger with little-known party could benefit NDA

The rebel MPs met Om Birla on Sunday and submitted a letter, stating that they would merge with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India and would support the ruling NDA coalition in the future.

In Short

• TMC's rebel faction merged with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India
• The merger move is set to help NDA in Parliament
• However, the move comes with its own challenges

On a leisurely Sunday, the political circles in Bengal were thrown into a dither after 20 rebel MPs, who formed a separate faction defying the Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee, decided to merge themselves with the little-known Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI), a Tripura-based political outfit, which contested the state election in 2023 with a symbol of an ink pen with seven strokes.

The development came after 19 of the 20 MPs met at the residence of the Lok Sabha Speaker, Om Birla, shortly after a meeting at the Union Minister Bhupender Yadav's house. The MPs submitted a letter to the Speaker, saying that they would merge with the NCPI and would support the ruling National Democratic Alliance in the near future. They also sought a separate seating arrangement from the members of the INDIA alliance.

The move is not confined to the mere split of a regional political party (TMC) that ruled West Bengal for 15 years. Rather, it is set to make an impact on the evolving political landscape in the national arena. With the support of the NCPI, the BJP-led NDA will benefit significantly in the numbers game as it eyes pushing key bills in the Parliament.

Let us have a look at the upcoming scenario.

THE MONSOON SESSION AND NDA'S PLAN TO INTRODUCE KEY BILLS

The month-long Monsoon Session in Parliament will commence on July 21. The NDA government is aiming to introduce key Constitutional amendment bills, and it will need the support of two-thirds of legislators.

Ahead of the elections in the five states, the government tabled the 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill, which was aimed at enabling the 33% women's reservation and was linked to the delimitation exercise. However, the bill witnessed a major setback as 298 MPs voted in favour and 238 voted against. As a result, the bill was defeated in the Lok Sabha.

Since then, it has been widely speculated that the NDA would seek support from the legislatures of several parties who are not in the ruling coalition. Rumours also shot up after the Congress-DMK fallout in Tamil Nadu that the NDA might seek issue-driven support from the DMK in the coming time.

With the visible fracturing of the TMC and 20 MPs openly declaring their alignment, the BJP is poised to enter the upcoming parliamentary session with a distinct strategic advantage well before formal proceedings even begin.

BJP'S ALLEGED ROLE IN THE TMC SPLIT

The rapid developments have fuelled intense speculation regarding the BJP's involvement in orchestrating the split, with observers pointing to the high-level meetings held at BJP leader and Union Minister Bhupender Yadav's residence.

In addition, the presence of several other BJP leaders, like Nishikant Dubey, CM Ramesh, and West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, in the meetings has also triggered the possibility that the ruling party in both the centre and the state played a major role in engineering the fallout.

More fuel to the fire was added after Sudip Bandyopadhyay, one of the closest aides of Mamata Banerjee, who had signed the rebels' list on Saturday, held a meeting with the Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

However, the BJP leaders had actively denied taking part in making any dent in TMC's internal fallout. When a section of MLAs first rebelled against Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee regarding the signature forgery case, Suvendu Adhikari said that the BJP had nothing to do with the fallout.

KEY CHALLENGES FOR THE MERGER MOVE

Meanwhile, the merger move comes with its own challenges as both the BJP and the rebel MPs share some level of political anxiety.

Several leaders within the West Bengal unit of the BJP fear that aligning closely with politicians they have fought against for years could send an adverse message to their grassroots workers. On the flip side, the rebel MPs harbour anxieties of their own, knowing that if their legal arguments fail to hold water, their Lok Sabha memberships could be at risk.

Besides, the inclusion of Sudip Bandyopadhyay has added a different angle to the unfolding narrative. Former TMC heavyweights like Tapas Roy (Minister in the Suvendu Adhikari cabinet now) and Sajal Ghosh allegedly left the TMC and joined the BJP as they found it difficult to work with Sudip. Roy openly lambasted Sudip multiple times. Even in his recent interview with a regional media outlet, Roy criticised Sudip for being opportunistic after he signed the rebels' list.

The rebel MPs might also face a legal challenge in the coming time. TMC's general secretary, Abhishek Banerjee, dispatched a letter to the Speaker, citing the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling in the Subhash Desai vs. Governor of Maharashtra case. The letter emphasises that the original political party holds supremacy over the legislative wing, and a valid merger can only be recognised if the original political party itself merges into another organisation. A mere breakaway group of MPs, the letter argues, cannot validate a merger.

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal has similarly questioned the legal standing of the rebel lawmakers. He noted that joining another party without the consent of the parent organisation provides strong grounds for the disqualification of the MPs.

ONUS ON SPEAKER OM BIRLA

The political fate of the breakaway faction now rests with Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Having received formal representations from both the TMC leadership and the dissident group, the Speaker must now adjudicate on two critical issues: whether to recognise the internal merger of the 20 MPs into the NCPI, and whether to grant them separate seating arrangements as part of the treasury benches.

Given the high constitutional stakes and the precedent involved, any decision rendered by the Speaker's office is highly unlikely to be the final word. Instead, it is expected to trigger a protracted and intense legal battle in the courts.

WHAT IS NCPI?

This major political turmoil has thrust the NCPI—a party virtually unknown to the vast majority of people in Bengal—straight into the national spotlight.

Sujit Dey, a social worker and a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) worker, is one of the founding members of the NCPI. As soon as the news of the merger broke out, he expressed his dissatisfaction in a telephonic conversation with India Today.

"Our party fought fiercely against the TMC on the ground during the Tripura Assembly elections," Dey said. Interestingly, the party also campaigned actively against the inclusion of political turncoats in the last assembly election.

- Ends