BJP-led Mahayuti set to return in Maharashtra, predict exit polls

Maharashtra exit polls: An average of three exit polls shows that Mahayuti is likely to secure 158 seats. However, past elections have shown that exit polls often get it wrong, and the numbers must be taken with a pinch of salt.

In Short

• Average of three exit polls shows Mahayuti is likely to secure 158 seats
• Past elections have shown that exit polls often get it wrong
• Votes to be counted for Maharashtra and Jharkhand on November 23

Three exit polls have predicted that the Mahayuti alliance is likely to return to power for a second term in Maharashtra, while another one has forecast a neck-and-neck contest with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi. An average of three exit polls shows that Mahayuti is likely to secure 158 seats, comfortably above the halfway mark of 145 seats.

However, past elections have shown that exit polls often get it wrong, and the numbers must be taken with a pinch of salt.

Matrize has predicted anywhere between 150–170 seats for the Mahayuti, which comprises the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP. It has given 110–130 seats to the MVA, which comprises the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena UBT and Sharad Pawar's NCP faction.

Times Now-JVC has also predicted a Mahayuti win, giving the alliance 159 seats. For the MVA, it has forecast 116 seats.

Chanakya has forecast that the ruling alliance, which banked on a host of welfare schemes, especially the Ladki Bahin Yojana, would cross the halfway mark, predicting it to bag 152–160 seats. The MVA, which was ousted from power in 2022 following a rebellion by Eknath Shinde, is likely to win 130–138 seats, according to Chanakya.

PMarq, meanwhile, has forecast a close contest between the two alliances. It predicted 137–157 seats for the Mahayuti, while giving 126–146 seats to the MVA. All eyes will now be on November 23, when the votes will be counted along with that of Jharkhand.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2019 MAHARASHTRA ELECTION?

In the 2019 polls, the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena contested the elections together. The NDA won 161 seats (BJP-105 and Shiv Sena-56). However, the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena parted ways over the chief minister's post issue.

The Sena joined hands with Congress and the undivided NCP to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi government in the state. In 2022, Shinde rebelled against then chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, leading to the fall of the government.

This year, the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) were locked in a two-cornered fight. However, there were several mini-fights within this battle.

Apart from a high-stakes legacy battle between the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) for Bal Thackeray's heritage, a prestige contest simmered between the two NCP factions led by Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar.

If the exit poll predictions come true, it will be an endorsement of PM Modi's policies and help the NDA shake off the underpar performance in the Lok Sabha polls.