Trump may ditch nuclear deal plan if Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz: Report

Donald Trump is weighing an endgame centred on reopening the Strait of Hormuz rather than securing a nuclear deal with Iran. Tehran's demands for reparations, sanctions relief and a US withdrawal have complicated any quick settlement.

In Short

• Trump looks for way out of prolonged war with Iran
• Iran demands billions, sanctions lift, US troop withdrawal for strait access
• Financial demands from Iran complicate potential US-Iran agreement

After weeks of bluster over a massive military escalation against Iran, US President Donald Trump appears to be searching for an escape hatch from a war that has proved harder to wrap up than he expected. The US President may now be willing to put aside the nuclear issue and call the conflict a victory if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the The Wall Street Journal, Trump has spent weeks preparing the ground for such an outcome and has privately told senior aides he could walk away without securing a nuclear deal with Tehran. That potential exit strategy, however, has become harder after Iran presented a sweeping list of demands for reopening the strait. Tehran is seeking billions of dollars in payments, an end to the US naval blockade, the withdrawal of American forces from the region and other concessions.

The series of developments have narrowed Trump's options for a face-saving end to the conflict, while raising questions that Tehran may be preparing for a prolonged confrontation rather than a quick settlement.

TRUMP'S EXIT PLAN RUNS THROUGH HORMUZ

Iran's ability to restrict traffic through the narrow strait using missile and drone attacks has given Tehran considerable leverage. The disruption has slowed commercial shipping and triggered volatility in global oil markets.

Trump has repeatedly said in recent weeks that the strait was fully open, but those declarations have proved premature. Tehran shut the waterway after the war began in February and has insisted that American warships and its allies should not be permitted to pass through it. Iran has also sought to collect revenue from commercial vessels using the route.

US officials said Washington has rejected both Iranian restrictions and any attempt to impose tolls on shipping.

The outlook deteriorated further over the weekend after the United Arab Emirates said Iran had launched a missile attack on one of its ships. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official outlined a broad set of conditions for reopening the strait.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the US would have to permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade, withdraw American forces, remove all sanctions, release Iran's frozen assets and pay war reparations. He also demanded an end to US threats and insults and a halt to American military action against Iran's militia allies across the region, according to Iran's state news agency IRNA.

TRUMP LOOKS FOR A WAY TO DECLARE VICTORY

The urgency for Trump to find an exit has also been influenced by domestic considerations. With less than three months remaining before the US midterm elections and petrol prices still significantly higher than before the war began in late February, he has been searching for a way to convince Americans that the conflict has achieved its objectives.

In recent days, Trump told reporters he had been prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II, but said US allies persuaded him not to do so. He also said a deal with Iran was "imminent", although no agreement has yet emerged. On Friday, Trump appeared to suggest that victory had already been achieved even without a nuclear agreement. He shared a social media post linking to an article titled "Donald Trump Won the Iran War".

Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, said the administration would continue pressuring Tehran to make long-term changes in its relationship with Washington.

"And if not, that's fine, too, we're just going to keep on applying the pressure we can apply, and getting as much oil and gas out of the Middle East so that Americans can enjoy lower gas and energy prices."

"We're in the middle of the game," Vance said.

NUCLEAR ISSUE MAY TAKE A BACK SEAT

The nuclear question has remained at the centre of US-Iran tensions since April, when the White House warned that Tehran would never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump initially sought to make nuclear negotiations part of an agreement with Iran. However, the talks became difficult, prompting the White House to place greater emphasis on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

According to The WSJ, Trump has privately told senior aides in recent weeks that he believes Iran may be unable to restart its nuclear programme during his presidency after the US destroyed three major Iranian nuclear facilities in May 2025. The US President has also argued in meetings that US intelligence capabilities would detect any attempt by Iran to rebuild the facilities or secretly develop a nuclear weapon. Trump believes the threat of renewed US military action would act as a lasting deterrent.

Trump has also downplayed concerns about Iran's buried uranium stockpile.

"We've already got the nuclear material, because it's so far underground," Trump said during a July summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "Nobody's going to be able to get it except us."

The calculations could allow Trump to shift the focus away from securing a nuclear agreement if Iran agrees to restore shipping through the strait and the threat from its nuclear programme remains contained.

MONEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR OBSTACLE

A major sticking point in any potential agreement is likely to be the financial concessions demanded by Tehran. Iran is seeking billions of dollars in war reparations and wants its frozen overseas assets released. Trump has previously said his administration would not allow American taxpayers' money to be handed to Iran.

However, according to US officials cited by The WSJ, reaching an agreement could prove difficult without Washington agreeing to unfreeze at least some Iranian assets, potentially subject to conditions. Another point of contention is whether the US should grant sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil on international markets.

Washington had agreed to such waivers last June as part of an interim peace arrangement with Tehran. That ceasefire later collapsed after Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the US to restore sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The issue has therefore become closely related to the question of whether Trump can secure an agreement that allows him to claim an end to the conflict without making concessions that could hand Trump another political headache at home.

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