Hemant factor helps INDIA soar, leaves BJP sore in Jharkhand

Jharkhand election results: Defying exit poll predictions, the JMM is on the way to forming a government for a third term, with the alliance leading in nearly 50 seats, way above the halfway mark of 42.

In Short

• JMM is on course to form a government for a third term
• Outcome shows Hemant Soren's popularity intact despite ED arrest
• In the 2019 election, JMM-Congress alliance won 47 seats

After being down in the dumps following his arrest earlier this year by the ED in a money laundering case, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren has orchestrated a stunning turnaround for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance in the Assembly elections. Defying exit poll predictions, Hemant Soren's JMM is on course to retain power, and for the first time in the state's history, form the second consecutive government.

The JMM-Congress alliance is leading in over 55 seats, way above the halfway mark of 42. The BJP-led NDA is ahead in 23 seats. Trends showed the JMM-Congress alliance leading in all the key regions of Jharkhand -- Chota Nagpur, Kolhan, Koylanchal, Palamu, and Santhal Pargana.

This marks a significant milestone in the political history of Jharkhand, which has so far been following a revolving door trend.

In the 2019 Assembly election, the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance won 47 seats. The JMM on its own won 30 seats, up from 19 in 2014. The BJP could bag only 25 of the 81 seats.

The election campaign saw the BJP, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, invoking "illegal immigration" from Bangladesh to attack the Soren government. The BJP repeatedly harped in poll rallies that Jharkhand's 'maati, beti and roti' (land, daughter and bread) were in peril because "infiltrators" were grabbing the jal, zameen and jungle from the tribals.

However, the JMM pivoted its campaign on its welfare schemes, especially the Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana, and the adivasi asmita (tribal pride) narrative. The Maiya Samman Yojana enables eligible women beneficiaries to receive Rs 1,000 per month.

The JMM victory is likely to have been powered by strong support by women voters. In fact, 68 out of the 81 seats recorded a higher women turnout, according to the Election Commission.

The lead-up to the election, however, was not rosy for the JMM, which saw Hemant Soren being arrested and a flurry of defections, including that of his sister-in-law Sita Soren to the BJP.

Soren had to resign as the Chief Minister shortly before his arrest on January 31 by the ED in a money laundering case. Senior leader Champai Soren was chosen to helm the state. However, Hemant was sworn in as Chief Minister for a third time in July after being granted bail by the High Court.

The move, however, left Champai Soren seething, and he eventually switched over to the BJP ahead of the Assembly polls. The issue was used by the BJP as a major poll plank, with leaders highlighting how a tribal leader was insulted by the JMM.

However, the JMM made the election into a Hemant Soren vs BJP contest in a bid to garner the sympathy factor following the drama over the Chief Minister's arrest. It was being portrayed by the JMM as the harassment of a tribal leader.