The many choices before Vijay in Tamil Nadu. Who will he pick?
Actor-turned-politician Vijay made a thunderous debut in Tamil Nadu, a state that has a long history of electing film stars as leaders. Vijay had promised change amidst the Dravidian duopoly. However, if the TVK fails to reach the halfway mark, what options does it have?
by Abhishek De · India TodayIn Short
- Vijay's TVK emerges as single largest party in Tamil Nadu
- Had earlier ruled out alliances with the DMK and AIADMK
- Vijay may need help of smaller parties to form government
Victory is in his name. And on Monday, actor-politician Vijay managed the unthinkable by emerging as the single largest party, leading in 108 seats in Tamil Nadu. While TVK, formed just two years ago, is confident of forming the government in the state "without any support", likely, the party may not be able to cross the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly. In such a scenario, Vijay will likely need allies to form the government. And he now seems to be spoilt for choice.
The Congress has already sent feelers to the Jana Nayagan star, and Vijay's father suggested that the TVK was ready to "share power" with the party. In the run-up to the polls, the TVK had categorically ruled out alliances with both the AIADMK-led NDA and the DMK, framing its campaign as a clean break from entrenched Dravidian politics.
However, the TVK may need the support of smaller Dravidian parties to cross the majority mark.
Nevertheless, the Vijay wave marks a significant moment in Tamil Nadu politics.
While the state has a long history of electing film stars as leaders like MGR, several iconic names like Rajinikanth and Kamal Hassan have failed to take the giant leap and convert fandom into electoral gains. Vijay also drew massive crowds at his rallies, particularly the youth and urban voters.
While it is too early to gauge what worked in Vijay's favour, he likely drew a major chunk of Dalit and minority Christian votes that would have otherwise gone to the DMK. Moreover, Vijay, who belongs to the Vellalar community, also seems to have benefited from the anti-incumbency votes, which otherwise may have gone to AIADMK's kitty.
But the bigger question remains whether Vijay will join hands with the Dravidian parties against whom he has campaigned? Let's have a look at the scenarios.
TAMIL NADU RESULTS: OPTIONS BEFORE VIJAY
Scenario 1: Vijay may choose to align with the AIADMK, which has previously courted the TVK for a pre-poll alliance. However, talks had failed over the TVK's demand for over half of the state's 234 seats and the projection of Vijay as the chief ministerial candidate. The script has turned, and AIADMK may be willing to join hands to revive its fortunes.
"I am sticking my neck out here and saying that if a proposal comes, I don't think the party will say no to that alliance," Apsara Reddy, AIADMK spokesperson, said.
The 51-year-old is unlikely to join hands with the DMK after vitriolic attacks against the MK Stalin-led party. Vijay had categorically said that while DMK was TVK's "political enemy", BJP was its "ideological enemy".
He had even alleged that the DMK and the BJP maintained an "underground dealing", claiming that after defeat, Stalin would "fall at the feet of PM Modi" to avoid corruption cases.
Scenario 2: As mentioned above, Vijay had framed the BJP as his "ideological enemy". Thus, he may ask the AIADMK to ditch the BJP if it wanted to align with the TVK. It, however, will be a big ask as it was the BJP that burnt the midnight oil in getting fractured AIADMK parties together.
Vijay's hesitation in joining the BJP can be understood by the fact that the saffron party vehemently attacked the actor after the Karur stampede last year, which left over 40 dead.
Moreover, his yet-to-be-released film, Jana Nayagan (People's Leader), faced significant hurdles in obtaining a censor board certificate, which sent him on a collision course with the CBFC. His film also got leaked last month, which is said to have led to a loss of nearly Rs 70 crore.
Scenario 3: Vijay also has the option of not aligning with either the DMK or AIADMK. The TVK may open backchannel talks with smaller allies of both Dravidian parties, like PMK, Premallatha Vijayakant's DMDK, VCK and AMMKMNKZ. It will give Vijay the space to chart his own legacy without being burdened by having a senior partner.
Scenario 4: Vijay may ditch local Tamil Nadu parties altogether and form his own government with outside support from the Congress. The state Congress has said it was ready to support TVK if it fell short of a majority. In the outgoing DMK government, the Congress was part of the alliance even though it did not get any government posts.
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