Philippines-China Tensions Escalate: Will U.S. Be Drawn Into This Conflict?

The recent withdrawal of the Philippine Coast Guard vessel, Teresa Magbanua, from Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea highlights China's success in blockading the area. Will the U.S. Be Drawn Into This Conflict?

The recent withdrawal of the Philippine Coast Guard vessel, Teresa Magbanua, from Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea highlights China’s success in blockading the area. Filipino sailors were reportedly dehydrated and malnourished, forcing Manila to pull back as China solidified its presence. This scenario mirrors the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, when the Philippines attempted to assert control but withdrew after weeks of confrontation with Chinese forces.

Despite ongoing disputes, Manila has been cautious in involving the U.S., particularly following an incident near the Second Thomas Shoal in June, where Chinese forces boarded a Philippine vessel. Although the Philippines hinted at seeking U.S. aid when supplies ran out, no formal request for intervention was made. While China promised to allow humanitarian supplies to Second Thomas Shoal, no such assurances were extended to Sabina Shoal.

The U.S. has responded cautiously, with U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Samuel Paparo saying “"Would the U.S. consider, I mean, certainly within the context of consultations, every option between the two sovereign nations in terms of our mutual defence, escort of one vessel to the other is an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defence Treaty among this close alliance between the two of us."

Legally, the Philippines is supported by the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which invalidated China’s broad maritime claims. However, the broader strategy behind Manila’s actions remains unclear as it seeks to balance asserting its sovereignty and avoiding further confrontation with China.

While the U.S. may be drawn in under its defense commitments, the decision to intervene remains tied to Manila’s willingness to formally request aid. For now, both nations seem focused on managing the dispute without triggering direct U.S. military involvement, though the situation remains volatile.