Opinion: Time to get over the addiction, exit the exit polls

As voting ends for Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections, it would traditionally be the time for exit polls. But what is this urge for instant gratification? Let's savour the moment, it's the best time to exit the exit polls.

Is it actually a cure for the itch to know, or is it the itch itself? Year after year, election after election, TV channels turned exit polls into a high-volume ritual. As voting ended, the high-stakes battle shifted to TV studios. But do we actually need exit polls? And is this the right time to quit?

Like with craving for sweets, the right time to resist is when the urge is at its peak.

There will be withdrawal symptoms, like with most cravings. To fight exit poll addiction, let's ask ourselves if we really need them.

Exit polls have time and again got it wrong.

Be it in the 2004 or 2024 general election, not to mention the many Assembly polls, pollsters had to eat the humble pie.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, all exit polls predicted that the BJP would be getting a majority with some even declaring that the NDA would score "400 paar". In the Haryana Assembly election held in October, most pollsters again got it wrong, predicting a majority for the Congress. They were proved wrong on both counts.

Not just in India, pollsters even in the US couldn't predict the outcome of the Presidential election in 2016. In 2024, the opinion polls showed a neck-on-neck contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but Trump swept the November 5 election.

What happens when exit polls get it wrong?

The Sensex surged to a record high on June 3 as pollsters predicted that the BJP would have an overwhelming majority in the Lok Sabha, empowering it to carry out big-bang reforms. However, a day later, as results poured in, the stock market suffered its worst crash in four years.

Well, it's not just about the stock market, it's also about the halwai (sweetmeat) market.

Buoyed by exit poll predictions, parties have ordered laddus in bulk only to face double disappointment on the day of results. On the other hand, it also resulted in last-minute shopping for laddus for the winning side.

The result day swings in mood in the Congress and the BJP camps on October 8, the day of results of the Haryana Assembly polls, is evidence enough.

The issue of whipping up false expectations was raised by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar in October while announcing the schedule of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections.

He pointed to the patchy record of the exit polls while asking for "introspection".

Now, as we try to exit the exit polls, let's give due credit to the experts who stick their necks out and risk it all.

Unlike soothsayers, they are not peering at a crystal ball. Psephology is a statistical study, and not pseudoscience.

Predicting polls requires extensive and right samples of voters, good questionnaires and experience and training. Despite all these, and the right intentions, pollsters might miss the drift, or get hoodwinked by silent voters.

This brings us to the big question. What's the need for instant gratification?

Exit polls are traditionally broadcast just 12 to 72 hours before the actual results are out.

For an election that has taken months of campaigning and gruelling work on the ground by the Election Commission, can't we wait and savour the results as they come in fresh and unadulterated on the day of the results?

There's a right time for everything -- and the day of results is the best for results.

We will know what Maharashtra and Jharkhand have decided on November 23.

That is why most TV news channels, barring just a couple, have decided to give exit polls a miss for Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

As we say the time's right to exit the exit polls, there is one song that we can hum together: "Zara intezar ka maza lijiye, dil-e-bekaraar ka maza lijiye."

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)