Separatists win Quebec election in test for Canada PM

• Separatists led by Parti Quebecois won Quebec's provincial election, pledging a future referendum on leaving Canada after President Trump leaves office, reflecting regional frustrations and identity concerns.
• The PQ gained power despite only about 30% vote share, helped by federalist vote-splitting; leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon plans no referendum before 2029 to ensure calm debate.
• PQ's leader also aims to reduce ties with the British monarchy, a move supported by many Quebecers who feel little attachment to the crown, signalling a shift in provincial identity.

MONTREAL – Separatists won provincial elections in Quebec on Oct 5, with a promise to hold a vote on leaving Canada after US President Donald Trump leaves office, testing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message of national unity to confront the United States.

But the Parti Quebecois (PQ) fell short of a majority government in Canada’s French-speaking province, offering some solace for the federalist camp.

The PQ win still upends Canada’s political landscape as the country confronts a trade war and annexation threats levelled by the United States.

It also comes just two weeks before Canada’s oil-producing province of Alberta, an economic powerhouse, holds a separate vote on whether it wants to begin the process of leaving Canada.

The results make PQ leader Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old lawyer known by his initials as PSPP, Quebec’s next premier.

At a jubilant victory party in Montreal, he invoked “the courageous struggle” francophones have endured in a part of the world increasingly dominated by English speakers.

That struggle “will find meaning when (francophones) obtain their own country,” he said.

“We deserve it,” he added, calling a referendum a chance “to decide what our national future will be”.

Independence after Trump?

Carney congratulated PSPP, saying that “building a stronger Quebec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada”.

The Canadian Prime Minister is popular in Quebec, and the separatist win was not seen as a repudiation of his stance towards Trump, whose trade war and annexation threats have infuriated Canadians.

Instead, the PQ’s rise after more than a decade in opposition has been tied to frustration over affordability and an enduring desire to protect the French language in an increasingly anglophone country.

Surveys suggest that only about 30% of Quebecers want independence, but PSPP has maintained he will call a referendum on leaving Canada, just not while Trump is in office.

He has said a decision on Quebec’s independence “requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate”.

That should not be “hijacked by the theatrics of an unpredictable president”, he added, ruling out a referendum until at least 2029.

Quebec has held two previous votes on leaving Canada. Federalists won comfortably in 1980, but the 1995 result was excruciatingly close, with just 50.58% voting to stay in Canada.

First-time voter Alexia Gomez, 19, invoked tensions with the United States when she told AFP she opposed an independence referendum.

“If Quebec becomes independent it would make us politically, economically and militarily vulnerable,” she said.

Lydie Periard, a 22-year-old student, said she was “very worried” by the PQ’s victory, condemning what she termed the party’s “populist” stance on immigration.

The PQ has backed immigration cuts, particularly for non-French speakers.

The PQ replaces a party, known as the Coalition for Quebec’s Future (CAQ), that advocated strongly for the province’s distinctive culture within Canada, without supporting separatism.

Lacking a majority, the PQ will struggle to advance its separatist agenda.

The two largest opposition parties after Monday’s vote, the Liberals and Conservatives, both declared they would never back a referendum on independence.

‘Abolish the monarchy?’

PSPP may not have majority backing for an independent Quebec, but his plans to target the British monarchy appear far more popular.

Canada is part of the British Commonwealth. King Charles III, Canada’s head of state, is represented in Ottawa by the governor general. Lieutenant governors represent the monarchy in the provinces, including Quebec.

In a 2025 Leger poll, 87% of Quebecers said they felt no attachment to the British monarchy, and only 31% expressed a favourable view of King Charles.

PSPP has said his government could cut off funds for the lieutenant-governor, calling it a “masquerade that wastes money”. AFP