Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro beats polls in presidential vote, faces incumbent Lula in runoff

• Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leads Brazil's presidential election first round with 49.58%, but is projected to face a runoff against President Lula, who has 42.25%, as no candidate passed 50%.
• The campaign focused on corruption scandals, economic worries, and accusations of US interference, with voters showing frustration and many undecided ahead of the runoff.
• Economic challenges, rising public debt, and a major fraud investigation involving Bolsonaro and judiciary figures overshadow the election, while legislative races increase political stakes.

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO/RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the runoff of a presidential election, the country’s electoral authority said on Oct 4.

With just over 97% of the ballots counted, the right-wing challenger took 47.45% of valid votes in the first round, beating the forecasts in most private surveys.

Leftist Lula received 44.66% of the votes.

The two leading candidates will advance to the second round of voting on Oct 25, beating out a field of 12 candidates in a campaign focused on concerns about the growing cost of living, corruption and insecurity in Brazilians’ daily lives.

Flavio, the 45-year-old son of former president Jair Bolsonaro who hopes to return his father’s right-wing movement to power, led Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth term, following a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US meddling.

A candidate must pass 50% in order to win outright in the first round.

The two leading candidates were expected to head into a second round vote, Brazilian pollster Datafolha said. Surveys have shown Lula and Flavio polling roughly even in an Oct 25 run-off.

Early results showed southern states that lean to Bolsonaro reporting faster, while votes from Lula’s north-east stronghold are tallied more slowly.

Analysts told Reuters they believed Flavio was receiving “protest votes” of people voting against Lula rather than for the right-wing senator – votes they had been expected to save until a second round.

A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with US President Donald Trump, while Lula’s reelection could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security.

Despite growing worries over Brazil’s public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign offered meagre policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates.

Undecided voters

While polls right up until Oct 3 showed Lula would likely lead the first round but not avoid a runoff, Flavio told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was confident he could win the presidency in the first round, citing voters’ frustration with his chief opponent.

Flavio was counting on “a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula”, he said. “I hope it’s enough to secure a victory in the first round.”

Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Lula’s Workers’ Party out of office.

“I don’t think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes,” she said, adding that she wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.

Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Flavio despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.

Outside interference

On the other hand, Lula’s allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise election results if he wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send US officials to Brazil.

“What is at stake is the future of Brazil,” Lula said after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo, in Sao Paulo state.

Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

“I’m a little worried about everything that’s been happening recently, including internationally. I feel this election has had a lot of outside influence, more than in previous elections,” said Cristiano, 34, a doctor in Brasilia who voted for Lula and preferred to withhold his surname.

“We are confident in our President Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty,” said Pedro Palacio, 45, who was voting in Brasilia alongside his wife, Andreia, and their two sons and two dogs, all of whom wore outfits supporting the president.

As at the afternoon of Oct 4, the election was proceeding normally, Brazil’s electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said in a press conference.

“Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever,” he said.

Reuters reported on Sept 30 that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged US and Russian interference before the election. The US has rejected claims of interference in Brazil’s affairs.

Economic headwinds

Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt and the threat of street crime and more pervasive gang activity.

Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to capitalise on cost-of-living concerns, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.

Rising spending and public debt above 82% of gross domestic product have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil’s next president will need to address. The government lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to just 2.0% and 2.3% respectively.

“I voted for Brazil to start growing again,” said Marciano de Souza e Silva, a 52-year-old public servant in Brasilia and former Lula voter who moved right, voting for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 and Flavio on Oct 4.

“The best social programme is one that encourages people to start businesses, to actually produce real wealth,” he said.

Scandal-plagued campaigns

Overshadowing the policy debate, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil’s political class and renewed public anger over corruption.

Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier in 2026 and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme.

The investigation has probed the banker’s ties to figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Flavio Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for money laundering tied to the case by the federal police.

The candidate has denied any wrongdoing, although he confirmed raising millions of dollars from Vorcaro to make a movie about his father.

The banker’s connections to Moraes, widely perceived as a Lula ally, plunged the court into crisis a month before the vote, creating fresh problems for the President.

Moraes has said the case against him is politically motivated for his role in the conviction of the elder Bolsonaro.

On Oct 4, voters will also elect all 513 lower house members and two-thirds of the Senate, where some lawmakers have pushed to impeach Moraes.

Congress has gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff, a Lula ally, in 2016, raising the stakes of those legislative races. REUTERS