Trump warns of major war escalation if Iran peace process fails

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BEIRUT – President Donald Trump has said US troops deployed near Iran will remain stationed in the area, and will start “shooting” again unless Tehran fully complies with the deal it reached with Washington.

“All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,” Mr Trump said late on April 8 on his Truth Social platform.

“If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts’, bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he said.

Mr Trump added: “In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!”

The fragile truce between Iran and the United States showed signs of unravelling on April 9, with Tehran threatening to resume hostilities as Israel pummelled Lebanon.

Washington and Tehran both claimed victory after agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and negotiations aimed at ending a war that has killed thousands across the Middle East and sparked global economic upheaval.

But the deal’s fractures emerged quickly on April 8, as Israel carried out its heaviest strikes on neighbouring Lebanon, including in densely packed central Beirut, since the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah joined the war in early March.

At least 182 people were killed and nearly 900 wounded on April 8, the Lebanese Health Ministry said.

The Lebanese prime minister’s office said April 9 will be “a national day of mourning for the martyrs and wounded of the Israeli attacks that targeted hundreds of innocent, defenceless civilians”, ordering the closure of public administrations and the lowering of flags.

Hours later, Hezbollah said it fired rockets towards Israel in response to its “violation” of the US-Iran truce, which was agreed to late on April 8.

Israel said earlier its battle against the Lebanese group is not part of the ceasefire, an argument echoed by US Vice-President J.D. Vance, days before he is due to lead talks with Tehran in Pakistan.

“If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them, and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice,” he said.

But Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf appeared to threaten the ceasefire, posting on X that the “workable basis on which to negotiate” has already been violated, making further talks “unreasonable”.

Mr Ghalibaf listed three alleged US violations of the truce plan: the continued attacks in Lebanon, a drone entering Iranian airspace, and a denial of the country’s right to enrichment.

Adding to the fragility of the truce – agreed hours before a deadline set by Mr Trump – a senior US official said Iran’s 10-point plan was not the same set of conditions the White House agreed to in order to pause the war.

The two sides appear to be far apart on Iran’s nuclear programme as well, one of the factors Mr Trump cited as the basis for war.

Mr Trump said Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium, which can be turned into nuclear weapons, and the White House said Iran has indicated it would turn over its existing stocks.

“The United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried... Nuclear ‘Dust’,” he said on social media.

Mr Ghalibaf, however, said Iran is allowed to continue enriching uranium under the terms of the ceasefire.

The belligerent rhetoric came ahead of high-stakes talks in Pakistan expected on April 10 or 11, after Iran temporarily agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under threat of annihilation by Mr Trump, with a small number of ships passing through the strategic waterway on April 8.

Iran announced alternative routes on April 9 for ships travelling through the strait, citing the risk of sea mines in the main navigational zone.

But it was unclear if Tehran was allowing vessels to pass through the waterway, following reports on April 8 suggesting it was shut, something the White House called “completely unacceptable”.

Despite the uncertainty, world stock indexes surged while oil prices plunged 14 per cent to settle near US$95 (S$121) per barrel, after falling as low as US$90.40. Benchmark Brent crude remains roughly US$25 higher than before the joint US-Israel attacks began.

‘Finger on the trigger’

In Lebanon, where UN rights chief Volker Turk called the scale of killing “horrific”, strikes across the capital Beirut without warning triggered scenes of horror and panic.

“People started running left and right, and smoke was billowing,” said Mr Ali Younes, who was waiting for his wife near Corniche al-Mazraa, one of the areas targeted.

More than 1,700 people have been killed in Lebanon since Israel launched airstrikes and a ground invasion last month, local officials said.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they would “fulfil our duty and deliver a response” if Israel does not cease its strikes, while Hezbollah said it has a “right” to respond.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel remained prepared to confront Iran if necessary, as it still has “objectives to complete”, with the military saying it continues to pursue the goal of “disarming” Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth also vowed that American forces remained at the ready if the conflict flared up again.

French President Emmanuel Macron condemned “in the strongest possible terms” what he called indiscriminate Israeli attacks on Lebanon, saying in a statement on X that Lebanon “must be fully covered” by the ceasefire.

Leaders of 13 European countries, Japan and Canada also issued a joint statement welcoming the ceasefire and calling for a swift end to hostilities in order to “avert a severe global energy crisis”.

But further casting doubt on the truce’s durability, Iranian state media announced fresh missile and drone attacks against US-allied Gulf states in retaliation for air strikes on its oil facilities, with Kuwait, the United Arab Emierates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain all reporting strikes since the ceasefire took effect.

There have been no reports of fresh attacks on other countries across the region in the past hours.

In Tehran, streets were quieter than usual on April 8, with many shops closed after a long and anxious night for residents fearing a massive US attack.

“Everyone is at ease now,” said Ms Sakineh Mohammadi, a 50-year-old housewife, adding she was “proud” of her country. “We are more relaxed.” AFP, REUTERS