Venezuela’s path to elections is unclear after Maduro’s removal

CARACAS - The US capture of President Nicolas Maduro
has upended Venezuela’s socialist leadership, raising questions about whether Vice-President Delcy Rodriguez can take charge without triggering new elections, just as a new National Assembly takes over on Jan 5.

The complexities of having a president suddenly whisked away to another country are now colliding with the intricacies of Venezuelan law and the political calculus for Ms Rodriguez, who is trying to keep Maduro’s other lieutenants aligned while also managing how the US relationship will evolve.

Turmoil erupted hours after US President Donald Trump stunned allies and adversaries by saying the US planned to “run” Venezuela – a declaration that came with few details about what it would mean for the oil-producing nation of roughly 30 million people.

By then, Maduro was already an indicted prisoner and in transit to New York, and Ms Rodriguez had denounced the intervention as a “barbaric” kidnapping, even as Mr Trump said she would partner Washington to “make Venezuela great again”. 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is taking the lead on Venezuela inside the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter, told NBC’s Meet The Press programme on Jan 4 that discussing elections in Venezuela at this point would be premature.

That raises questions about how closely, if at all, the US plans to support a transition established in Venezuela’s Constitution, which could lead the country to elections within months or entrench an interim government backed by Washington.

Even as the Trump team’s understanding with Ms Rodriguez remains unclear, “it would suggest that the US recipe is for a hybrid arrangement that maintains ‘acceptable’ Chavistas at the helm of certain institutions provided that they switch to uphold pro-US interests”, Teneo managing director Nicholas Watson said on Jan 3 in a report to clients. Chavista is a term for ruling party supporters, a reference to the late president Hugo Chavez. 

“While that may help avoid a dangerous power vacuum, such an ultra-pragmatic settlement centred on a figure with limited legitimacy may be difficult for many Venezuelans to accept,” he added.

Given the constitutional court’s decree on Jan 3, there is confusion on whether a formal swearing-in ceremony in front of the newly established assembly will be required for Ms Rodriguez, according to two lawmakers, who declined to be named to avoid repercussions.

Much will hinge on how the authorities classify Maduro’s sudden removal from office. In a ruling issued on Jan 4, the court signalled it is treating the situation as a temporary forced absence – a move that buys the government time but keeps the clock ticking.

Under a temporary absence framework, Ms Rodriguez could exercise executive power for up to 90 days, carrying the interim period into April. Venezuela’s Constitution allows for a one-time extension of another 90 days, which would push the deadline to July, at which point lawmakers would be forced to decide whether Maduro’s absence has become permanent.

If that threshold is crossed, the calendar accelerates. An absolute absence within Maduro’s first year into his most recent presidential term would require a new election within 30 days, opening the door to a vote as soon as August if the National Assembly moves to formalise his removal.

The new legislature is required to take office on Jan 5, and the government said the session would go ahead despite political uncertainty. Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez confirmed on Jan 4 that the installation would proceed as planned. 

Members of the new assembly were elected in an early vote in May 2025, amid widespread disappointment and fear among voters. Most of the opposition, led by Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado, boycotted that vote, arguing it was an attempt to move on from the disputed July 2024 presidential election, in which the opposition says Ms Machado’s stand-in candidate won by a landslide. 

Still, a faction of the moderate opposition – including former governor and two-time presidential candidate Henrique Capriles – chose to participate in the parliamentary vote and a subsequent regional election. The group secured fewer than 20 seats, far below what would be needed to influence legislation. Another opposition bloc widely viewed as government-aligned secured 13 seats. The assembly has 285 members in total.

Further complicating the picture is that Venezuela’s Constitution does not explicitly account for forced absence or a president being captured by a foreign government, leaving room for political manoeuvring as rivals and allies test how long the interim arrangement can hold.

That said, Venezuela’s Constitution has been sidelined many times before. Emergency decrees, including one enacted last weekend, have allowed the executive branch to govern without constraints, raising the risk that the next steps – including the timing of any election – may diverge from the formal process. 

Another concern, both for Venezuela’s government and the Trump administration, is security. “You do have an opportunity for violence,” said Mr David Fitzgerald, a former chief of Latin America operations at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Noting the presence of armed militias loyal to Maduro and the regime, he flagged the need for the US to avoid a collapse in security of the type that led to brutal violence in Iraq after the removal of Saddam Hussein. 

“That’s kind of an apple and an orange, and we’re not there yet,” said Mr Fitzgerald, now a fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute. “But that’s something I think that the administration needs to watch out for.” BLOOMBERG