Democrats dominate first big votes of Trump’s second term, but uncertainties remain

Summary

• Democrats celebrated key election wins in New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, including Zohran Mamdani's mayoral victory, boosting party morale.
• Despite Democratic wins, polls show the party remains broadly unpopular, and intra-party tensions persist between moderates and progressives.
• Republicans acknowledge challenges mobilising Trump's base when he's not on the ballot, highlighting the need to improve voter turnout.

WASHINGTON - Democrats took a victory lap on Nov 5 after sweeping the first major elections since Donald Trump returned to the White House, a much-needed balm for a wounded party that had spent much of the last year desperately trying to find its footing.

A new generation of Democrats, including the 34-year-old New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, won closely watched contests in New Jersey, New York and Virginia, while California voters resoundingly approved a new congressional map aimed at improving Democratic odds of winning the US House in 2026.

Mr Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House, boasted that Republicans got “wiped out” in a post on X on Nov 5.

The impressive performance - including lower-profile victories in swing states Pennsylvania and Georgia - gave a boost of momentum to Democrats, who remain locked out of power in Washington after losing the presidency, the House and the Senate a year ago to Mr Trump’s Republicans.

But most of the biggest contests took place in Democratic-leaning states, and there are still plenty of pitfalls for the party to confront before the midterm elections in November 2026.

The Democratic brand remains broadly unpopular, according to opinion polls. While Mr Trump’s approval rating has fallen, voters are still split between the parties; a Reuters/Ipsos poll in late October found respondents were equally likely to say they would vote for a Republican or a Democrat for the House if the election were held that day.

Intra-party tensions may also persist. Mr Mamdani, a democratic socialist, energised young voters as an anti-establishment insurgent, while Ms Abigail Spanberger and Ms Mikie Sherrill, the two women who won the Virginia and New Jersey governor races, are both moderate Democrats with national security backgrounds.

However, all three candidates focused intensely on economic issues, particularly the cost of living, an issue that helped propel Mr Trump to the White House in 2024 but has remained top-of-mind for voters.

“I think the lesson for the president is that it’s not enough to diagnose the crisis in working-class Americans’ lives,” Mr Mamdani said, at his first press conference as mayor-elect on Nov 5. “You have to deliver.”

Unity versus unanimity

Mr Trump, a brawler by nature, wrote on social media just after midnight in all capital letters, “...and so it begins!” On the morning of Nov 5, the White House posted a campaign-style video celebrating the one-year anniversary since Mr Trump regained the presidency, writing, “The golden age of America is here to stay.”

Democrats have argued that the party can succeed with candidates of all ideological stripes, as long as they focus on the problems that matter most to everyday Americans.

“There’s many different ways of being a Democrat,” Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin told Reuters ahead of the election. “No one should confuse unity with unanimity.”

Mr Mamdani, the first Muslim to be elected mayor of the biggest US city, defeated former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, 67, who ran as an independent after losing the nomination to Mr Mamdani earlier this year. Mr Cuomo, who resigned as governor four years ago after sexual harassment allegations that he has denied, painted Mr Mamdani as a radical leftist whose proposals were unworkable and dangerous.

Mr Mamdani has proposed raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy to pay for ambitious policies such as frozen rents, free childcare and free city buses.

Republicans have already begun portraying Mr Mamdani as the new face of the Democratic Party.

“His election is proof that the Democrat Party has abandoned common sense and tied themselves to extremism,” Republican National Committee chairman Joe Gruters said in a statement.

While Ms Sherrill and Ms Spanberger’s victories were perhaps unsurprising in Democratic-leaning states, the double-digit margins of their wins far exceeded Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’ performance in 2024.

Both candidates had sought to tie their opponents to Mr Trump in an effort to harness frustration among Democratic and independent voters over his chaotic tenure.

More than one-third of voters in those states said opposing Mr Trump was a factor in their vote, according to exit polls conducted for a consortium of US networks and the Associated Press. Those voters overwhelmingly cast ballots for the Democrats.

For Republicans, the Nov 4 elections were an early warning sign that the party may struggle to mobilise Mr Trump’s coalition when he is not on the ballot.

Vice-President J.D. Vance acknowledged that problem in a social media post on Nov 5, saying Republicans must do a better job of turning out the less reliable voters that backed Mr Trump in 2024. REUTERS