Kamala Harris is 'ahead in enough swing states to win,' says latest Times poll

Polls are slippery things that in the end mean nothing. When it comes to elections, polls are not predictors, and they are not votes. And no matter which candidate wins, the pollster is never wrong. Even if a poll found that a candidate had only a 1% chance of winning, if that candidate indeed ended up victorious, the pollster could still crow about their poll being right. (I'm looking at you, Nate Silver.)

Okay, so now that we got that out of the way [ahem], the latest Times poll has Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump in "enough swing states to take the White House," reports The Independent. Putting the margin of error aside, her lead is narrow, but it's still a lead.

Some of the poll's findings, in a nutshell: Harris is ahead of Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin with 49% to his 45%. In Michigan she leads 48% to his 45%. In Pennsylvania she leads 49% to his 46%. And in Nevada she's has a slight edge over Trump with 48% to his 47%.

And from The Times:

Kamala Harris is on track to become America's first female president by a narrow margin thanks to the Democratic vote holding up in the rust belt of old industrial states, according to the final Times poll before the US election.

Of the rust belt states, Harris is four points ahead among likely voters in Wisconsin, and three points ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. She is one point ahead in Nevada. Likely voters are evenly split in Arizona, and Trump is one point ahead in both Georgia and North Carolina.

The Times surveyed the seven swing states because the outcome in the other 43 states is far more predictable.

If the results after election day on Tuesday turn out like the YouGov poll, Harris would win the Oval Office by a margin of 276 electoral college votes to 262. This would make it the closest finish since the 2000 election, which was decided by 271 to 266 after a month of legal wrangling about Florida's result was resolved by the Supreme Court.

To reiterate, it's just one survey. And yeah, it's meaningless. But it's a fun poll — and analysis — to end the week with.

Previously: FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver predicts who will be president but says not to trust his prediction