Nagrota, Budgam to vote today

Srinagar/ Jammu, Nov 10: All arrangements have been put in place for Tuesday’s bypolls in Budgam and Nagrota Assembly constituencies, the contests that have drawn statewide attention as the first electoral test for the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah-led government and a key battle for the BJP in Jammu.

While the outcomes in both constituencies will not alter the Assembly’s arithmetic, their political significance is immense.

The twin bypolls are being seen as a referendum on the NC’s first year in office and a measure of the BJP’s continuing influence in Jammu, setting the tone for the political course ahead in Jammu and Kashmir.

BUDGAM SHOWDOWN

All preparations have been finalised for the Budgam Assembly byelection, a contest widely seen as Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s first major political test since taking charge of the government and the National Conference (NC).

The Budgam constituency, along with Nagrota, will witness polling on Tuesday after the seats fell vacant last year.

Seventeen candidates are contesting from Budgam, which went to a bypoll after CM Omar vacated the seat to retain Ganderbal, following his dual victory in the 2024 Assembly elections.

For decades, Budgam has remained a stronghold of the NC, with the party holding the seat almost uninterrupted since 1962.

The only exception came in 1972, when a Congress candidate triumphed.

The constituency has also been represented thrice by NC leader and current Srinagar MP Syed Aga Ruhullah, who won in 2002, 2008, and 2014 before Omar Abdullah won in 2024.

However, this time the NC faces an internal challenge.

Ruhullah, once a trusted party face in Budgam, has openly differed with the party leadership on key policy matters, including the current reservation policy.

His decision to stay away from campaigning for the NC candidate Aga Mehmood – a close relative – has raised eyebrows and introduced a new element of uncertainty for the ruling party.

The NC has mounted an intensive campaign to safeguard the seat, with CM Omar himself leading from the front.

The CM spent three consecutive days in the constituency, addressing road shows and public meetings in a last-ditch effort to consolidate support.

Aga Mehmood’s main rival is PDP candidate Aga Muntazir, while other notable contestants include BJP’s Aga Syed Mohsin, Awami Ittehad Party’s Nazir Ahmad Khan, Aam Aadmi Party’s Deeba Khan, and independent Muntazir Mohiuddin.

Political observers say a victory in Budgam would boost the NC’s morale and demonstrate its ability to retain ground despite internal rifts, while a setback could expose growing dissatisfaction within the party and the electorate.

The bypoll is being viewed as more than a local contest.

It is a performance report of the NC-led government’s first year in office – a government that came to power promising to fight for the restoration of J&K’s special status under Articles 370 and 35-A, the return of statehood, and new employment opportunities for youth.

However, critics allege the party has shifted focus from constitutional restoration to routine governance, leaving many promises unfulfilled.

Opposition parties, including the PDP and BJP, have accused the CM Omar-led administration of failing to deliver on its commitments like 200 units of free power, job creation, and a fair reservation system.

Officials said all arrangements were in place for smooth polling on Tuesday.

Around 1.26 lakh voters are eligible to cast their ballots across 173 polling stations, with Electronic Voting Machines and polling staff already dispatched.

A comprehensive security setup has also been put in place to ensure peaceful voting.

Polling will take place from 7 am to 6 pm, marking the beginning of what could be a defining political moment for CM Omar and his party.

NAGROTA FACE-OFF

The electorate in Nagrota assembly segments is all set to exercise their franchise in the by-elections on Tuesday, with all arrangements in place for free and fair polling.

Geared up for a triangular contest, in the Nagrota assembly segment, 97,980 voters, comprising 50,551 males and 47,429 females, will exercise their right to vote to elect their new representative.

To facilitate a smooth electoral process, 150 election booths have been set up across the assembly segment.

This seat had fallen vacant due to the sudden demise of BJP legislator and its senior leader Devender Singh Rana on October 31, 2024, just a few days after the result of J&K assembly elections.

In all, there are 10 candidates in the electoral fray.

They include Harsh Dev Singh of Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party-India (JKNPP-I), Devyani Rana of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); Shamim Begum of Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC); Joginder Singh of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP); Naresh Kumar Chib of Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party-Bhim (JKNPP-Bhim); Bodh Raj of Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, Qari Zaheer Abbas Bhatti of All India Forward Bloc, Anil Sharma and Shah Muhammad, and Gulzar Hussain, all independents.

Yet going by the indices of poll-nomics, three candidates – Devyani, who is the daughter late Devender Rana, DDC member Shamim Begum, and former minister Harsh Dev are being perceived to be the main contenders, given their backgrounds, cadre strength of their respective parties, and the crowd they have attracted while campaigning.

Besides this trio, Anil Sharma, a BJP rebel and All India Jammu and Kashmir Panchayat Conference (AJKPC) president, too, has gained traction during the campaigning as a “dark horse.”

However, it will be the BJP, which has major stakes in the election for obvious reasons.

In 2024, the assembly segment elected BJP MLA Devender Singh Rana with a record margin. Now the party, which fielded its late MLA’s daughter, is leaving no stone unturned to retain it.

If in Budgam, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s prestige is at stake, the BJP is caught in a similar situation in Nagrota, where its victory will have a significant resonance across the political landscape in J&K.

Though considered to be a BJP stronghold, the assembly constituency has given the party a ‘shock therapy’ in between.

Since 1996, NC has won this seat twice, and the BJP has scored victory thrice.

Ajatshatru Singh, nominated by NC, was elected MLA in 1996.

In 2002 and 2008, BJP candidate Jugal Kishore Sharma emerged victorious from this seat. In 2014, Devender Singh Rana won it as an NC candidate, despite a strong Modi wave.

However, in 2021, he joined the BJP. In the 2024 assembly elections, he won Nagrota again, this time for the saffron camp.

Former minister Harsh Dev earlier represented Ram Nagar assembly constituency of Udhampur district thrice in 1996, 2002, and 2008.

He unsuccessfully contested from Ramnagar again in 2014 and then in Chenani in 2024.

An interesting proposition is that both candidates, Ajatshatru Singh and Devender Rana, who won on the NC ticket from this segment, later joined the BJP.

As far as campaigning was concerned, a unique feature was that it was purely the local leadership, which galvanised the electorate, even in the case of the BJP.

No central leader joined the campaign.

Main reliance was on local leadership – no key star campaigner from national leaders descended.

BJP MPs, national general secretary and in-charge of J&K affairs, Tarun Chugh, along with J&K party leadership, led the front.

Victory will earn local leadership a boost for future electoral battles.

In the case of the NC candidate, CM Omar and Deputy Chief Minister Surinder Kumar Choudhary besides other party leaders, campaigned.

Intriguingly, the sulking alliance partner, Congress, did not join the campaign.

The party mainly focused on whether the electorate would benefit if they voted for the ruling party candidate.

In the case of candidates, Devyani’s major strength is the profound legacy of her father and the party’s cadre strength.

Her emotional appeals recalling her late father’s love, compassion, and commitment for Nagrota and its people as their representative are striking a chord with the electorate.

NC too has a loyal core constituency among Scheduled Tribe voters.

The campaign of Harsh Dev, who is new to Nagrota, mainly revolves around the BJP-Congress-NC bashing.

Anil Sharma has promised to distribute his salary as an MLA, in case of his election, to the elderly people, widows, and the handicapped, as a pension.