Turkey in turmoil - Istanbul’s Mayor arrest, protests and the battle for democracy

New Delhi, March 20: Turkey is in the news as political unrest begins after the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul’s mayor. His arrest on Tuesday has ignited protests not seen in years, even though Turkey is no stranger to unrest in the past.

The opposition leader of Ekrem Imamoglu, by the majority of political analysts, is viewed as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most formidable rival and most probably favourable candidate to win the President’s election in 2028.

Now, his arrest on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group has raised questions about Turkey’s political trajectory, its democratic institutions, and its future role on the global stage. International condemnation has begun pouring in over his arrest.

Turkey, because of its geographical position, enjoys good relationships with both Russia and the United States.

On Wednesday, following Imamoglu’s arrest, thousands of protestors took to the streets across Istanbul and other major cities. Protesters defied government-imposed four-day restrictions, with demonstrators gathering on university campuses, in metro stations, and outside government buildings.

Media reports indicate that more than 100 protestors and opposition leaders have been arrested, including prominent journalists, opposition politicians, and student leaders. The Istanbul administration has imposed a four-day ban on public gatherings. However, scattered protests continue. Student leaders from different universities and opposition political activists are calling for more demonstrations in the coming days.

Imamoglu’s rise to prominence has been swift. After securing Istanbul’s mayoralty in 2019, defeating Erdogan’s chosen candidate, his popularity surged. Imamoglu again won the Mayor’s election in 2024, beating Erdogan’s party candidate; Istanbul has long been a stronghold for Turkey’s ruling elite.

Istanbul is more than just Turkey’s largest city; it is the country’s vital hub for trade, finance, and tourism. It sets the political and economic tone of the country. It means that if Istanbul is won, it automatically strengthens the power. Erdogan, himself, was once the city’s mayor. He understood this better than anyone else and hence is a little nervous. Imamoglu’s continued dominance in the city had positioned him as a prime contender for the future presidency, and most of the opposition counted on him.

Imamoglu’s arrest, however, has been met with widespread outrage. Protesters yesterday were seen on the streets and university camps raising anti-regime slogans in defiance of the government-imposed restrictions.

Some analysts and media persons compare the scenes of tear gas clouds and chanting crowds reminiscent of the 2013 Gezi Park protests, a seminal moment in modern Turkish dissent that escalated into nationwide unrest against Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian rule. While that movement eventually waned. Imamoglu’s arrest has rekindled that defiance.

Authorities accuse Imamoglu of corruption, links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and rigging public tenders as the basis of his arrest. The charges that his supporters dismiss and dub them politically motivated.

The timing of the arrest is in question as his arrest came just days before he was supposed to be formally announced as the main opposition’s presidential candidate. Another major factor that people, and more so supporters of Imamoglu, was that Istanbul University invalidated his degree. A move that could disqualify him from running as presidential candidate.

Under Turkish law, presidential candidates must hold a university degree. Critics argue that this is a calculated attempt to remove a viable challenger from Erdogan.

President Erdogan has been in power in Turkey for over last two decades. However, presently, he faces not only anti-incumbency but also a faltering economy. The currency lira has reached record low.

The present conflict situation in West Asia has massively affected Erdogan’s leadership, even though he sought to position himself as a key power broker in West Asia, leveraging Turkey’s ties to both NATO and Russia.

Amid the ongoing West Asia crisis, Turkey has maintained lines of communication with both Washington and Moscow while seeking to expand its influence across the region as well as at the international level, but it has also made him a polarising figure at home and several other Muslim neighbouring countries.

No one can guess how long Imamoglu will be behind the bars at present. However, Turkey’s future now hinges on how events will unfold in the coming weeks. Protests and legal battles for Imamoglu may continue as the atmosphere of Presidential elections begins to shape up in the country, which will be of much interest to the global actors who matter.

However, chances are that Erdogan’s opponents, emboldened by the backlash, may attempt to galvanise a unified opposition, a feat that has historically proven elusive. For now, Turkey walks on the razor’s edge as several countries, including India, will be watching the situation unfold as its institutions and economy are hanging in the balance.