Election 2024: What Is Mahama And The NDC's Path To Victory?

While the NDC may seem to be cruising into what could be a victory for them in the upcoming December 7 election, a little push from the NPP side could see their dreams crashing down

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Former president and flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), John Mahama, is seeking re-election in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

His victory would be historical as it would be the first time in Ghana’s political history that a former president would be sworn into office for a second term.

However, to attain this feat, the NDC would have to increase their electoral percentages in the Akan regions of Ghana, traditionally the strongholds of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).

According to Musa Dankwah, a pollster at Global InfoAnalytics, the NDC would have to attain close to 30% of votes in the Ashanti region to secure a win in the polls on December 7, 2024.

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He noted that the Ashanti and Eastern regions were critical for the NDC to cause a major upset in the 2024 elections.

He explained that while most polls ahead of the 2024 general elections have predicted a win for the NDC, the NPP still stood a chance of winning if it was able to rally its support base in the Akan regions.

However, he said the NDC has several paths to securing a victory and increasing or stabilising their electoral proportions in the Akan regions is one way to go about it.

“Once they hit that number of 28 per cent, that would help them a lot. They have a lot of paths, and that path goes through many places,” he said of the NDC in an interview with YEN.com.gh.

Voter apathy in NPP’s strongholds

Musa Dankwah further explained that the NDC could use voter apathy among the NPP’s support base to increase its gains in the Akan regions.

He stated that the high voter apathy among those who would have otherwise voted for the NPP might favour the NDC if it works hard to maintain or increase its positions in these regions.

“Low apathy is not on the side of NDC voters. Apathy is on the side of NPP voters. For every 100 persons who say they will not vote, 17 are NPP, and one is NDC,” he said.

Other than that, the NDC would face a very tight race if the NPP managed to hold its regions and improve slightly in their Akan bases.

Musa Dankwah predicted that if the NDC rested on its oars, the NPP would have “a very good chance of winning, and indeed, that is what the polls are showing right now.”

“Currently, in the polls, we are seeing apathy in the eastern Region and Ashanti Region, especially in the Easter Region.

“If that continues, that would affect their [NPPs’s] turnout, and if they win by a big percentage, there would not be a big volume of votes.

“Recent polling has them 65%, which is not where they [the NPP] want to be. They are targeting 85%, which I believe is completely impossible.”

NDC's fate could rest on swing regions

The most recent 2024 Global InfoAnalytic poll, conducted between November 11 and 16, 2024, also indicated that while the race in the Greater Accra, Central, and Western swing regions had tightened, the NPP’s position in the Akan and Northern regions had deteriorated with less than three weeks.

According to the poll results, in those swing regions, Mahama led the race with 51.1%, followed by NPP candidate Mahamudu Bawumia with 39.5%, Nana Bediako with 7.0%, Kyerematen with 2.0%, and others with 0.4% combined.

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Source: YEN.com.gh