Centrists and far-right level in Dutch election: projection

Centrist party D66 and the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) are neck and neck with 90% of votes counted, a projection showed, signaling a setback for Geert Wilder's PVV, which had come in first in the last election.

The Dutch parliamentary election is heading toward a nail-biting finish as the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders and the pro-European D66 party led by Rob Jetten were tied with 26 seats each, according to a provisional estimate on Thursday with more than 90% of votes counted.

The PVV saw a steep decline from its record 2023 result when it won 37 seats, while the pro-European D66 nearly tripled its representation — gaininng 17 seats compared with two years ago and emerging as the biggest gainer, according to early results on Thursday.

What did early exit polls say?

Early exit polls showed the centrist D66 party coming in first, slightly ahead of Wilders' PVV, and opening a path for Jetten to become the Netherlands' youngest prime minister.

An IPSOS exit poll had projected D66 to win 27 seats against 25 for Wilders.

The ANP news agency's latest forecast showed D66 slightly ahead by a few thousand votes, with final results expected later Thursday.

PVV had faced fresh competition from two centrist parties, the Christian Democrats under new leader Henri Bontenbal, who promised stability and "traditional values," and from D66, led by 38-year-old Jetten, who had gained ground with a message focused on housing and education.

The Netherlands' fragmented system ensures no single party will reach the 76-seat threshold to govern alone, meaning lengthy coalition talks are almost inevitable — and the country’s political direction still hangs in the balance.

Anti-Islam populist Wilders appeared to admit that his party would not reach first place. "The voter has spoken. We had hoped for a different outcome but we stuck to our guns," Wilders wrote on X, following the exit polls.

Meanwhile, cheers and chants of "Yes, we can" broke out at the D66 election night celebration, with the crowd waving Dutch flags.

"Millions of Dutch people have turned the page today. They have said goodbye to the politics of negativity, of hate," Jetten told jubilant supporters. 

What is at stake in the Dutch election?

The vote was a major test for Dutch voters, to see if they would double down on Wilders' anti-immigration platform or steer back toward the political center after two years of unstable conservative rule. His previous coalition collapsed in June when he withdrew support over immigration policy disputes.

Wilders, who calls himself the "Dutch Trump," had campaigned on denying all asylum applications — a move that would breach EU treaties — and redirecting development aid toward domestic spending. "People are fed up with mass immigration and the change of culture," he told the AFP news agency.

Ahead of the vote, Wilders' chances of becoming prime minister appeared slim. All major parties, including the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and conservative Christian Democrats, have ruled out governing with him.

Nearly half of Dutch voters remained undecided as the vote neared, surveys showed, underscoring the political uncertainty.

Why was the Netherlands voting now?

Wilders triggered the election by withdrawing the PVV from a fragile four-party government after a dispute over immigration quotas and family reunification rules, a move that fractured the coalition and forced an early vote.

His performance in the European Union’s fifth-largest economy will be watched as a gauge of how far-right parties are reshaping European politics, with nationalist movements also topping polls in France, Germany, and Britain.

Edited by: Sean Sinico, Dmytro Hubenko