'Very tough stretch' for NATO: From Trump's threats towards Greenland to war on Iran with no endgame

The downing of a US fighter jet over Iran carries the potential to reshape the conflict’s scope entirely. The risk is not only military, but political: how leadership interprets events, communicates success, and chooses to respond. At the same time, we must remain grounded in historical precedent: POW situations have repeatedly altered the calculus of conflict. All the while, the strain on transatlantic relations, including NATO, and the broader geopolitical advantage accruing to actors like Russia, all form part of the fragile equilibrium of an international system under pressure.

Produced by Gavin Lee, Théophile Vareille, Guillaume Gougeon and Laura Burloux