Taiwan tensions: China-Japan row hits trade and travel amid escalating rhetoric

Japan’s Ministry of Education has issued a warning to its schools operating in China, urging them to ensure the safety of its students amid an escalating row with Beijing, Kyodo News reported Wednesday. In a press conference Tuesday, Education Minister Yohei Matsumoto referenced the murder of a Japanese pupil in China last year, saying authorities must “avoid (repeating) that situation at all costs”.  

The warning comes as China announced it would suspend imports of Japanese seafood, citing concerns over treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Emphasising that there is no market for Japanese seafood “under current circumstances”, China’s foreign ministry warned of further counter-measures. 

Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have now erupted after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office recently, suggested earlier this month that Japan could respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan. 

Replying to an opposition lawmaker at a parliamentary meeting, she warned that such an attack could trigger a “situation threatening [Japan’s] survival”, potentially justifying the deployment of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces. Beijing responded harshly, denouncing the remarks as interference in its internal affairs and demanding that Takaichi retract them – a step she has so far refused to take. 

Within days, Chinese diplomatic and economic pressure mounted. China issued a travel advisory cautioning its citizens against travelling to Japan, and also began urging its students to reconsider studying in Japan. In response, Japan advised its citizens in China to take safety precautions and avoid crowded places. 

A break from the precedent 

Experts say Takaichi’s remarks mark a significant change. Jeffrey J. Hall, special lecturer at Japan's Kanda University of International Studies, said security experts have widely held the belief that Japan would play a role in a potential Taiwan conflict, but the country’s leaders have avoided stating it directly, until now. 

“Strategic ambiguity allowed China to save face, even though China's government probably already expected that Japan would take such a stance in a Taiwan conflict,” he said.  

Hall noted that Takaichi delivered the remarks after a 3am session re-writing official responses to parliamentary questions, choosing her own words over bureaucratic phrasing.  

“As a result, she ended up saying something that deviated from the policy followed by her mentor, Shinzo Abe … When Abe was prime minister, he carefully avoided directly saying Japan could defend Taiwan,” he explained, adding that her use of the antiquated term “battleships” suggested bureaucrats had not vetted her responses. 

John Lim, research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia at the University of Tokyo, said in an analysis that this is the first time Taiwan has explicitly become a central issue in a major China-Japan diplomatic crisis – shifting from earlier disputes that typically revolved around history or territorial issues. 

Describing Takaichi’s remarks as “preventive clarity” aimed at signalling Japan’s red lines while avoiding a full-scale confrontation, Lim noted that both Beijing and Tokyo have strategic reasons to prevent a total breakdown in relations, adding that Japan is using a “dual-track communication” approach – dispatching senior security officials to Beijing to reassure them that Japan is maintaining the status quo. 

Taiwan in Sino‑Japanese Relations 

Taiwan has long been a sensitive faultline in relations between Beijing and Tokyo. When Japan normalised ties with the People’s Republic of China in 1972, it formally accepted the One China policy but retained extensive unofficial ties with Taipei – from trade and investment to cultural and security exchanges – allowing Tokyo to support Taiwan without provoking Beijing. 

A former Japanese colony, Taiwan was ceded by the Qing dynasty in 1895 and remained under Japanese rule until 1945. Tokyo invested heavily in infrastructure, education and industrial development, shaping the island’s institutions and leaving a legacy that still influences cross-strait and regional politics. 

The colonial history also helped to shape and continue to inform Japan’s policies on regional security. Citing the 1960 US-Japan security treaty, which allows American forces based in Japan to operate across East Asia, Lim said “[the independance of] Taiwan is seen as the key to help guarantee Japan’s national security”. 

Economic fallout 

As the spat between the two Asian powers deepens, China’s punitive measures are hitting Japanese businesses hard. Chinese tourists have reportedly cancelled an estimated 500,000 flights to Japan, dealing a blow to airlines, hotels and the wider tourism sector. 

Watch moreDiplomatic spat with China threatens Japanese tourism industry

Hall noted that China has many more levers it can pull to damage Japan’s economy. With US President Trump’s tariffs already weighing on the country, Takaichi’s political position could be further weakened.  

“Low wages and high prices are a major issue for Japanese voters. A trade war with Japan could cause prices to go up even more, but it also creates the potential to appeal to nationalism and blame the situation on China.” 

He added that Beijing’s response appears calibrated to punish Japan without triggering a deeper confrontation. “This will likely go on until the Chinese government believes it has sufficiently punished Japan,” Hall said. 

Lim, meanwhile, argued that neither side wants relations to collapse entirely, particularly at a moment when supply chains are being reconfigured and both economies face internal pressures. He said both governments are trying to contain the fallout even as Taiwan becomes an increasingly sharp point of friction. 

“The pendulum of China-Japan relations is always swinging between reconciliation and conflict … yet history shows that even at the lowest point, dialogue is always restored,” Lim said.