Ousted Bangladesh PM Hasina’s death sentence could deepen country’s political crisis: Analysts
The verdict, though unlikely to be carried out, could widen divisions and destabilise Bangladesh’s fragile democracy, analysts tell CNA.
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Bangladesh is at a crossroads after a tribunal sentenced ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity linked to last year’s deadly protest crackdown.
The verdict is largely symbolic and unlikely to be carried out – as Hasina remains in exile in India – but it could deepen divisions within the country, said analysts after Monday’s (Nov 17) ruling.
They added that it could also complicate relations with India and undermine Bangladesh’s fragile democracy.
IMPLEMENTATION IN DOUBT
Aside from Hasina, former Interior Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal – also sentenced to death – is reportedly hiding in India too.
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Bangladesh’s foreign ministry has urged New Delhi to extradite both, but India has yet to respond to the demand.
Hasina has dismissed the in absentia ruling as politically motivated, alleging the process was a foregone conclusion.
Amit Ranjan, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, said India’s decision will likely be guided by its own strategic interests, not Dhaka’s political pressures.
India has “close ties with Hasina’s family” and must balance that friendship with its national interest, he told CNA’s Asia Tonight.
“It’s not an easy decision to make,” he added, pointing out that the extradition treaty between the two countries allows a request to be refused if it is seen as a “political vendetta”.
Professor Greg Barton, chair in global Islamic politics at Deakin University, said New Delhi acceding to the request could be seen domestically “as a sign of weakness and betrayal for (Hasina) who was regarded as a close friend of India”.
“Exile to a third country could be a face-saving move that allows tensions between New Delhi and Dhaka to de-escalate, but I can't see New Delhi folding and sending (Hasina) back to Bangladesh,” he told CNA’s Asia First.
VIOLENCE COULD ESCALATE
The protests that toppled Hasina began over a controversial job quota seen as favouring her supporters and escalated into a nationwide movement against a 15-year rule marked by allegations of disappearances and extrajudicial killings.
A United Nations-led investigation into alleged crimes found that 1,400 people – including many children – may have been killed while thousands were injured during July and August last year.
The UN on Monday called the sentencing an “important moment” for victims of the 2024 crackdown but reiterated its opposition to the death penalty.
UN rights chief Volker Turk has also urged Dhaka to focus on “national reconciliation” and called on all parties to exercise restraint.
In the days leading up to the ruling, there were reports of violence, including dozens of crude bomb explosions and arson attacks on buses in Dhaka and other cities.
Barton said the death sentence has raised the stakes for Bangladesh’s interim government.
“Even though it's unlikely to be carried out, (the sentence) ups the emotional temper. It risks violence on both sides,” he said.
“I think it's very likely that Bangladesh will endure months of violence that will make holding the February elections difficult.”
YUNUS ‘ON A TIGHTROPE’
Ranjan cautioned that the country’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, must tread carefully to avoid repeating the same authoritarianism that marked Hasina’s rule.
In May, Bangladesh's Election Commission suspended the registration of Hasina's Awami League, effectively barring the party from contesting the next national elections.
Excluding the party from the polls is undemocratic, said Ranjan: “This government has to prove (it is) not like Hasina. Otherwise, they will be equally responsible for killing democracy in Bangladesh.”
He added that while Hasina’s administration was tainted by human rights abuses and suppression of dissent, her contributions to Bangladesh’s economic growth cannot be ignored.
Barton agreed that banning the Awami League – one of the country’s two dominant parties – leaves a large portion of voters “out in the cold without a party to support”.
A possible middle ground to maintain the legitimacy of polls, he said, would be to allow it to take part in the elections but bar its indicted leaders from running.
However, it remains unclear whether the interim government would be willing to pursue such a compromise.
Barton also noted that Yunus faces mounting pressure to maintain stability ahead of elections.
Yunus, while popular, is “on a tightrope”, he said. “If he comes out too strongly against the verdict, people will turn on him. If he hangs on stubbornly and refuses to allow the Awami League in any form to contest the elections, that’s very high risk as well.”
At the same time, the Awami League’s members have been “bellicose in their statements”, Barton said. “So, the risk is there of major violence igniting, and certainly to the point where elections can't be held, or the results are not received.”
To add to this, Bangladesh’s vital garment industry, the world’s second largest, is suffering from trade tariffs and waning investor confidence.
Barton stressed that confidence and public trust are central to Bangladesh’s economic stability.
“The key now is to avoid protests and violent protests, particularly on the streets, and to give everyone a sense that Bangladesh is finding its way through.”
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