Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire unlikely to last entire 60 days, let alone become permanent: Analyst
The truce brokered by the United States and France took effect on Wednesday (Nov 27), with US President Joe Biden saying it was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities”.
by Louisa Tang · CNA · JoinA ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah took effect on Wednesday (Nov 27), potentially ending an almost 14-month conflict that has killed thousands since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year.
But some experts told CNA they are not optimistic the 60-day deal will last.
This is despite United States President Joe Biden saying that the truce, which was brokered by the US and France, was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities”.
“I am not at all confident that this ceasefire will even last 60 days, let alone become permanent,” said political science lecturer Simon Frankel Pratt from the University of Melbourne.
“It's possible it will, definitely, and we should be so lucky. I think that there are a lot of other interests, incentives and commitments that would need to be well managed and worked out in order for this to become permanent,” he added.
Under the ceasefire agreement, Israel will gradually withdraw its forces over 60 days from southern Lebanon, which it invaded about two months ago.
Hezbollah will also end its armed presence there and move north of the Litani River, which runs about 30km north of the border with Israel.
Lebanon's army will take control of territory near its border with Israel to ensure that Iran-backed Hezbollah does not rebuild its infrastructure there, said Biden. Longstanding border disputes will be discussed after the 60-day withdrawal period.
More than 1.2 million people have been displaced by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, many of them from the south.
Pratt pointed out that the war is unlikely to resume if the over 60,000 displaced northern Israeli residents begin to return to their homes near the Lebanese border.
“But so long as they remain displaced, that would sort of indicate that the security situation remains volatile,” he told CNA’s Asia First.
MONITORING OF TRUCE
Cedomir Nestorovic, a geopolitics professor at the ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific campus, said both Israel and Hezbollah were “anxious to settle the deal” before US president-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan 20.
“I do hope that we can expect it to hold … I believe that both sides have a very big interest in holding the ceasefire for the moment,” he added.
However, he flagged the lack of an international commission or international monitor that will track whether the truce is being upheld.
The US is chairing a group to monitor the ceasefire, which will include France and a pre-existing tripartite mechanism between the United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), the Lebanese army and the Israeli army.
Israel will be expected to flag possible breaches to the monitoring mechanism, and France and the US will determine whether a violation had taken place, reported Reuters.
Cedomir told CNA’s Asia Now: “We have to trust … that nothing will come (from Israel and Hezbollah).
“But maybe in the future, if the ceasefire (holds), they will set up a special commission or a special committee in order to monitor the ceasefire.”
WHAT IT MEANS FOR GAZA WAR
Analysts said it remains difficult to predict how an Israel-Hezbollah truce would affect the war in Gaza, which has been fought between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas for more than a year.
Hamas continues to hold dozens of hostages in the Gaza Strip, while the death toll there has surpassed 44,000.
Pratt said: “It's certainly possible that the precedent set by Israel declaring victory in its fight with Hezbollah, even if Hezbollah is not totally destroyed – that could be a similar precedent for declaring victory in its war against Hamas, even if Hamas isn't fully destroyed, and to begin the long phase of rebuilding and reconstructing Gaza.”
On the other hand, Pratt noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could prolong the Gaza war if the Israel-Hezbollah truce eases domestic pressure on him to, for example, draft a bill exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from mandatory military service.
“This might allow him to continue the war for longer, as he clearly desires to do so,” said Pratt.
“So, there are many different ways that this could go for Gaza. You can be an optimist or a pessimist about it.”
Cedomir said Gazans today “do not have any other hope” than a ceasefire of their own, having been “pushed towards the very limit of their existence”.
He added that within the next 60 days, the US will likely do its best to secure the hostages’ freedom.
Biden said on Tuesday that his administration is working with other negotiators to “make another push” on a Gaza truce.
Cedomir said this would be “much more difficult” than the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, especially if countries continue pulling out of the negotiation process.
Qatar, a major mediator between Israel and Hamas, said earlier this month that it would suspend its role until both parties showed “willingness and seriousness”. Negotiations have repeatedly failed since a ceasefire collapsed after a week in November last year.
Pratt said the truce between Israel and Hezbollah gives Israel the opportunity to focus its efforts elsewhere.
“Wouldn’t it be nice if those efforts were directed towards a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza too?” he added.
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