'All the cards are on the table': Iran faces power vacuum after Khamenei’s death, analysts say
Despite mounting speculation about regime change, analysts warn that without boots on the ground, any meaningful shift in Iran is more likely to stem from internal power dynamics than from external pressure.
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A US-Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has thrust the Islamic republic into one of its most uncertain moments in decades, raising questions over succession and the risk of wider regional escalation, analysts say.
Khamenei was working in his office in Tehran at the time of Saturday's (Feb 28) attack, state media said, which also killed his daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law and son-in-law. The attack also targeted senior Iranian leadership.
The development is a major blow to Iran because “there is no successor”, said Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of geopolitics at ESSEC Business School Asia Pacific, warning that “all the cards are on the table”.
While he believes the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), government and parliament “will do their best in order to make some kind of successor continuation”, he said it will take a “long time” before another leader is named.
WHO HOLDS POWER NOW?
Under Iran’s political system, the supreme leader has ultimate authority over the armed forces, judiciary and national security.
Without a named successor, Nestorovic said that constitutionally, authority would rest with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, along with the government and the Assembly of Experts.
The Assembly of Experts, made up of senior ayatollahs elected every eight years, is the body that appoints the supreme leader.
“In the meantime, it will be the IRGC … who will take all the responsibility,” Nestorovic told CNA's Asia Now programme.
The IRGC wields deep political influence in Iran, controlling significant economic assets and overseeing a regional network of militant groups.
Iran has already launched missiles and drones in retaliation, with strikes reported in Dubai, Bahrain and other places with US military bases. Nestorovic expects the IRGC to press ahead with its attacks.
“They are also pledging (to) avenge the supreme leader and also other people who have been killed in Iran.
“So I do expect that the war is not finished yet … because the IRGC are not ready to surrender, and they will fight until the end,” he added.
REGIME RESILIENCE?
Not all analysts believe the killing of the supreme leader automatically weakens Iran’s regime.
“The overestimation about the power or the importance of Khamenei is problematic because the Iranian regime as a whole and the IRGC more specifically are very powerful organisations,” said Eyal Mayroz, senior lecturer in peace and conflict studies at the University of Sydney.
He argued that Iran has learnt from previous external pressure by decentralising its command structure, pointing to the speed with which missiles were fired in response.
The rapid retaliation suggests contingency plans may have been pre-authorised, reducing the impact of leadership losses and making so-called “decapitation” strikes – targeted at key leaders – less likely to paralyse the system.
Speculation has quickly turned to regime change, but Mayroz told CNA's Asia Now he was “sceptical about the possibility of making a regime change from the air”.
“Neither Israel nor the Americans will put boots on the ground.”
Any meaningful shift, he argued, would likely come from within the regime’s own centres of power – potentially from factions inside the IRGC – rather than from opposition groups abroad, which he described as “fractured and not very powerful”.
TRUMP’S HIGH-STAKES GAMBLE
The strike on Iran is the second time this year that United States President Donald Trump has moved aggressively against a foreign leader, following the capture of Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro in January.
The targeting of sovereign leaders has raised questions about whether this reflects a coherent strategic doctrine or an attempt to reshape global order.
Nestorovic suggested it represents a shift away from traditional diplomacy to “some kind of destructive diplomacy”.
He characterised the move as a continuation of Trump’s “shock and awe” style – using surprise and unpredictability as strategic tools.
The unpredictability, he noted, has unsettled even parts of Trump’s domestic base.
Nestorovic added: “Just a few months ago, (Trump) wanted to receive the Nobel Prize for Peace. So even within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, there are people who are surprised by this, that suddenly he decides to put the United States in war, and it is not a small country – it is Iran.”
He also noted that Iran’s major allies – China and Russia – “so far, did not move”, after the strike, highlighting the uncertainty over how far Beijing or Moscow are willing to go in backing Tehran.
Mayroz believes Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may already be considering how to frame an eventual exit from the conflict.
By presenting the strikes as an opportunity for Iranians to change their own regime, the leaders could later argue they fulfilled their role.
“They could then later on use it to say, we've done our part. If it didn't work, then it's because the Iranians didn't do theirs.”
Domestically, however, the political risks may be higher in Washington than in Jerusalem.
Mayroz said Trump faces “a lot higher risk than Netanyahu” because there is “very strong support within Israel for that action, regardless of the outcomes”.
“But in America, if things don't work out, then Trump will have a harder time being not very popular at the moment,” he said.
Mayroz pointed in particular to the upcoming US midterm elections.
“(Trump) has to show that this was indeed a successful operation,” he said, noting that there are “a lot of forces even within his base that weren't happy … about what has transpired”.
If no meaningful change emerges inside Iran, it may be difficult for Trump to claim success.
Mayroz warned that “may prolong the actions or the war if he feels that this has not happened yet”.
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