How Indiana's redistricting rejection affects Trump's push nationwide
· Yahoo NewsIndiana's resounding rejection of President Donald Trump's mid-decade redistricting plea throws a wrench in his plan to pad the Republican majority in Congress.
Though Indiana only had two seats to offer, the White House was very much counting on them. Now, the math could end up wielding Republicans little to no advantage at the end of all this effort, since Democratic states have also drawn their own new maps ― and there are still more states considering action.
The Indiana Senate rejected the redistricting bill by a 31-19 vote, with a slim majority of Republicans joining Democrats in voting it down. The Hoosier state is the first to outright reject Trump's push.
How does the math work?
Republicans currently have a seven-seat majority in the U.S. House. Trump's goal with mid-decade redistricting is to pad that majority more comfortably to ward off any gains Democrats might make in the 2026 midterm elections.
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The party that is not in power typically performs better in midterm elections, so Republicans' historically slim majority is a tenuous situation for them.
Six states have heeded Trump's call to redistrict. The first to do so was Texas, which drew five new seats with Republican advantage. California retaliated with a map that cancels out the Texas seats, adding five Democratic seats. North Carolina and Missouri each added one Republican seat. Ohio passed a map with two more Republican-advantaged seats. Utah's court-ordered map adds one Democratic leaning seat, though Republicans are fighting to throw it out.
So from those six states, theoretically, Republicans are netting three extra seats in the House. But then there are at least six more states that are considering redistricting, but from whom a potential map hasn't been made public. They include three states led by Democrats ― Maryland, Illinois and Virginia ― and three led by Republicans ― Florida, Nebraska and Kansas.
Florida's effort in particular is stalled by legal concerns since its constitution contains some anti-gerrymandering language.
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Yet more states may have to change their maps in response to court orders: like Alabama, Louisiana, New York and North Dakota.
Dave Wasserman, senior editor of the Cook Political Report, said on X that Florida, Louisiana and Virginia are the "biggest remaining variables" and could "cancel out" one another.
More: Republicans blame California. Democrats blame Trump. What started Indiana's redistricting push?
Contact IndyStar Statehouse reporter Kayla Dwyer at kdwyer@indystar.com or follow her on X @kayla_dwyer17.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: How Indiana's redistricting rejection affects Trump's push nationwide