Analysis: Amid Stalled Talks, Russia Has Massively Increased Air Attacks On Ukraine

As several months of US-led diplomacy have failed to broker a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, the Kremlin has used the time to massively ramp up aerial attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

Russia almost doubled its monthly totals of missiles and drones fired at Ukraine between December 2024 and May 2025, according to figures compiled by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED.

The numbers increased every month going from 1,269 in December to 2,436 in May.

The US-based ACLED recorded 2,110 strikes between June 1 and June 27, but this does not include air strikes last weekend which Kyiv said were the largest of the war so far.

Official figures provided by the Ukrainian Air Force put the numbers even higher. It said Russia fired a record 5,438 drones in June.

A 16-Fold Increase In Drone Attacks

This is a roughly 25 percent increase compared with May 2024, and a 16-fold increase compared with June 2024. The figures also show missile attacks almost doubling in the same period.

Russia’s ongoing aerial assault has caused hundreds of deaths every month, including many civilian casualties.

One of the factors behind the increasing scale of attacks is that Russia has steeply increased drone production. The Ukrainian government estimates that Russia is now able to manufacture some 5,000 drones per month.

This includes modernized versions of Iranian Shahed drones which are better at evading Ukrainian defenses.

“[Russian drones] now use a more powerful warhead. We see that they have changed the design and some electronics because of the different warhead,” Oleksandr Vysikan of the Kyiv Research Institute of Forensic Examinations said.

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More Attacks Are Getting Through Air Defense

As the number of Russian drones and missiles launched has increased, Ukraine’s interception rate has dropped.

It fell from 95 percent in June 2024 to 79 percent in June of this year for drones and from 74 percent to 50 percent for missiles, according to figures published by Ukraine’s Air Force, which is responsible for air defense.

Large drone swarms, including decoy drones without warheads, also help to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive capacity.

Ukrainian military analyst Vladyslav Seleznyov told RFE/RL’s Russian Service that air defense in Kyiv has been unable to cope with attacks involving 300 or more drones.

Seleznyov said that Ukraine’s best form of defense may be attack, citing recent Ukrainian drone strikes on targets deep within Russia.

“In my view, attacks on Russia’s military-industrial complex can have the biggest effect,” he said.

“This is showing good results. But these strikes need to be stepped up,” added Seleznyov, who was formerly a spokesman for the Ukrainian military.

A Bad Time For Washington To Halt Patriot Supplies

Concerns about the upward trend in attacks have been exacerbated by Washington announcing it was halting some arms supplies to Kyiv.

This includes Patriot air defense missiles, according to US media reports.

The Trump administration said a Pentagon review of US military support to other countries around the world had determined that US stockpiles of certain weapons had declined too much.

A decision was made to “put America’s interests first” following the Defense Department's review, said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly in a statement.

Zelenskyy said he raised this issue in a July 4 phone call with Trump.

“We discussed the possibilities of air defense and agreed that we will work on increasing the protection of the sky,” he wrote on Telegram.

“We agreed on a corresponding meeting of our teams,” he added.

There was no immediate comment from Washington.

The previous day, Zelenskyy announced a deal to jointly produce drones, including interceptors, with a US company.

Several European nations have also supplied air defense systems, including the German IRIS-T and Gepard weapons.

Much of Ukraine’s defense against drones is based not on sophisticated anti-aircraft missile systems, but on soldiers using machine guns mounted on their vehicles.

Their guns are able to hit targets at a range of about 2,500 meters, while the Russian drones now often fly at 3,000 meters or more.

Another element of Ukraine’s air defense is its fighter aircraft. Ukraine is believed to have around 85 US-made F-16 jets as well as Soviet-made Sukhoi jets.

During the mass attack on June 29, the Ukrainian Air Force said US-made F-16 jets shot down “dozens” of incoming targets.

One pilot, Maksym Ustymenko, reportedly shot down seven targets before his jet was damaged. Ustymenko was killed when the jet crashed as he did not have time to eject.