Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump (Barely) Ahead In Most Final Surveys

Topline

Former President Donald Trump has erased Vice President Kamala Harris’ brief lead in Georgia in polling averages shortly after her late entrance into the race, as he aims to flip the state after losing it to President Joe Biden in 2020.

Key Facts

Trump is up 1.1 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, and he leads by one point, 50% to 49%, in Emerson College/The Hill’s final pre-election swing state survey out Monday (margin of error 3.4 points).

Harris has a rare 48%-47% lead among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), though three other polls in the past week show Trump with an advantage, and he’s also leading in polling averages.

Trump is up 50%-48% in a Morning Consult likely voter survey out Sunday, and he’s ahead 48%-47% among likely voters in a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday (margin of error 4.7 points).

Trump also leads Harris 51%-46% in a Cooperative Election Study poll released last week (2,663 respondents, polled earlier this month as part of a national study sponsored by several universities).

Trump and Harris are tied at 49% among likely voters in a Marist poll out Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.9), while Trump leads Harris 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll published Oct. 23, also marking a close-to-even race given the three-point margin of error.

Until Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia by just under 12,000 votes, the state hadn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1992, but Georgia has moved to swing state status over the past decade as Democrats have improved their margins in federal and state elections.

Georgia’s shift from red to purple is widely credited to diversification in the Atlanta metro area, where the population grew by 15% between 2010 and 2020, while the white population shrank by 2%, according to the most recent census data.

Hillary Clinton won eight out of 10 counties in the Atlanta suburbs in the 2016 presidential election despite losing statewide, and former Rep. Stacy Abrams and President Joe Biden won most suburbs by even wider margins than Clinton in the 2018 gubernatorial campaign and 2020 presidential election, respectively, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis—reflective of a broader national leftward shift among suburban voters.

Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock also flipped Georgia’s Senate seats from red to blue in 2020, further cementing the state’s battleground status.

What To Watch For

Georgia is expected to count ballots relatively quickly, as officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots the third Monday before Election Day, though they can’t begin counting them until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Counties must report the results of early and absentee ballots by 8 p.m. on Election Day and report the number of uncounted ballots by 10 p.m.

Contra

Republicans control the state Senate, the House and the governor’s office in Georgia and nine of its 14 representatives in Congress are Republicans. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has staved off challenges from former Democratic Rep. Stacy Abrams in both 2018 and 2022, and increased his victory from one to seven points in the most recent election.

Key Background

Georgia is one of seven swing states likely to decide who wins the presidential election. Harris leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, and the two are tied in Pennsylvania, according to the Silver Bulletin. The most likely path to victory for Harris runs through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which have a combined 44 electoral votes. If she wins all three, plus all the other non-swing states Biden won in 2020, she would reach the 270 electoral-vote threshold needed to win the election. If Trump wins one of the Rust Belt states (most likely Pennsylvania, according to polls), and also carries Georgia and North Carolina, then he would likely break 270.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leads By 1 Point In 7 Battlegrounds In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 4 New National Surveys—Amid Virtual Tie In Swing States (Forbes)