How Ukrainians View Trump’s Effort To End The War With Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump, fresh from helping broker a Gaza cease-fire, has turned his attention to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Following his Oct. 16 call with Vladimir Putin, Trump announced plans for another meeting in Budapest after the Alaska summit in August. “Great progress was made,” Trump wrote on Truth Social after a two-hour call with Putin – though what that progress entailed remains unclear.

Trump has so far avoided using greater leverage. Eight months of outreach to Putin have failed to produce tangible progress toward peace. Moscow’s air attacks continued unabated, while the Kremlin escalated hybrid warfare across Europe.

Putin’s response to Trump’s peace efforts has been a surge in missile and drone strikes against Ukraine. On Sept. 1, The Wall Street Journal reported that “while Russian attacks slowed in the weeks leading up to the Anchorage summit, Moscow has decisively stepped up strikes since then.” From Aug. 1 to 15, Russia launched an average of 76 drones per day. After the summit, that number nearly doubled to 141.

Reacting to news of the planned Budapest talks, Financial Times Moscow bureau chief Max Seddon wrote on X, “Looks like we’re back to where we were before Alaska – the U.S. is backing down from attempts to get tougher on Russia and back Ukraine, in favor of a so-far illusory peace deal.”

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Speaking at an Oct. 14 press conference, Trump urged Putin to “do something about the war,” calling it a costly failure for Moscow. He said Putin “should have won that war in one week,” noting that the invasion is now entering its fourth year. “It’s horrible,” Trump said. “They’ve lost a million and a half soldiers killed and wounded. It’s making him look very bad.”

Trump’s approach to Putin has puzzled even some of his usual supporters. In an editorial, The Wall Street Journal’s board wrote that the president “exerted maximum pressure on adversaries—and it worked,” citing Iran and Hamas as examples of how using the stick rather than the carrot brought them to the table. “The mystery,” the Journal added, “is why he has for so long refused to show the same strength toward Mr. Putin.”

Trump had previously hinted that Tomahawk cruise missiles could soon go to Ukraine. But a day before his scheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, he sounded uncertain. “We need Tomahawks for the United States of America too,” he said, according to the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 16. “We have a lot of them, but we need them. I don’t know what we can do about that.”

In a post on X the same day, Zelensky wrote, “Putin is certainly no braver than Hamas or any other terrorist. The language of strength and justice will inevitably work against Russia as well. We can already see that Moscow is rushing to resume dialogue as soon as it hears about Tomahawks.”

Mixed Reactions In Ukraine

For many Ukrainians, Trump’s peace push evokes both hope and skepticism. “I’d like for Trump to actually have some influence, not just what we read in the news, where he sounds like a madman or a child,” Dima, known by the call sign Passport, a company commander in the 98th Separate Territorial Defense Battalion, told me during an interview. “He wanted to fix everything with a snap of his fingers, but it didn’t work, and now he says, ‘You deal with it yourselves.’ One moment he’s enthusiastic and gives interviews, then he loses interest completely.”

Others see a glimmer of opportunity. “The agreement between Israel and Gaza is a major breakthrough toward peace in the whole world. It shows that all wars ultimately end through negotiations,” says Serhii Mukhin, a drone pilot from the 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. “Now we really hope that Trump, who’s a bit less occupied with the Israel-Gaza issue, will focus on resolving our situation.”

Still, not everyone believes Trump’s style of deal-making can deliver results. “As for Trump being a negotiator, he’s about as much of one as I am a ballerina,” says Hryhorii Hoidalo of the 105th Territorial Defense Brigade. “He’s more of a high-level blackmailer, though he does achieve his goals that way. But in any negotiations with Putin, it will be our interests that get sacrificed first, because we have nothing with which to influence Trump, unlike Putin.”

A Harder Reality

Others reject the idea of a negotiated settlement outright. “A deal between Ukraine and Russia is impossible,” Liudmyla Redych, a Kyiv resident, told me in an interview. “Russia, with its imperial ambitions, will not stop. And the issue isn’t only Putin, it’s also the mindset of ordinary Russians. They see Ukraine as a resource appendage. If Putin agrees to a deal, it will end badly for him. He’ll be removed quickly, and someone else will take his place, and they’ll start the war again with renewed force.”

Redych believes only sustained military and economic pressure can bring Russia to its senses. “The breakup of Russia into smaller, autonomous republics is the only viable option,” she said. “It would cost many lives; Ukrainians will not forgive the Russians. Another way the war could end is by striking deep inside Russia so ordinary citizens lose the belief that Russia is big and strong. Economic pressure could help this too. Then maybe they’ll focus on their own lives instead of invading others.”

She added, “Imperialism is a terrible thing. Illusions will fall when Russians become hungry and desperate for basic necessities.”

On Oct. 16, The Guardian reported that Russia fired more than 300 drones and 37 missiles at gas facilities across eastern Ukraine. The strikes hit at least eight regions, sparking fires at sites such as the Shebelinka plant in Kharkiv and forcing nationwide blackouts as about 60% of gas production was temporarily halted. Following the attacks, Zelensky posted on X, “not a single night in recent weeks has passed without Russian strikes on Ukraine. Most of the targets are infrastructure – a systematic campaign of terror against our energy sector.”

Oleh Chukhnii, a Kyiv resident, told me that after almost four years of war, daily life has become increasingly difficult and electricity shortages are worsening. BBC News reported that emergency power cuts now affect almost all regions, leaving millions without power as temperatures drop and marking the fourth consecutive winter of nationwide blackouts since the full-scale invasion began.

Ukraine Steps Up Pressure On Putin

The FT reported that the United States has quietly provided Ukraine with intelligence to help plan long-range drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure since the summer. Kyiv’s drone campaign has steadily expanded over the past two years, evolving into a powerful domestic deterrent.

According to Ukrainska Pravda, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, said “Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have caused greater damage to Russia’s economy than any international sanctions.”

Budanov added that most of the attacks have been carried out with domestically produced drones and munitions. “We are working mostly with our own means – 99% of them are ours. We now have our own production.”

Reuters reported that Russia’s war economy is showing strain as major industrial firms furlough workers and cut hours. From railways and automobiles to mining and cement, producers are reducing workweeks to contain wage costs amid falling domestic demand and shrinking exports. Non-military sectors have contracted 5.4 percent since January, and GDP growth is projected to slow to about 1 percent this year.

Bloomberg reported on October 15 that Russia’s refined-fuel exports have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, averaging 1.88 million barrels per day in early October. The decline, driven by Ukrainian drone strikes, forced Moscow to extend a gasoline-export ban and impose diesel limits. Citing the International Energy Agency, Bloomberg added that refinery capacity has been cut by roughly 500,000 barrels a day and will likely stay below 5 million barrels until mid-2026, pushing fuel exports to a decade low.

The Kyiv Independent reported that Putin signed a decree on Oct. 12 easing fuel subsidy rules to shield refineries hit by Ukrainian strikes. The change lets them keep state payments even as fuel prices rise. Russia spent 1.8 trillion rubles ($22 billion) on subsidies in 2024, but payouts fell to 716 billion rubles.

And in a sign of the Kremlin’s growing manpower problems, CNN said on Oct. 7 that regional governments are sharply increasing sign-up bonuses to attract recruits. Some areas, including Tyumen and Voronezh, have quadrupled payments, offering as much as 3 million rubles ($36,500) on top of federal incentives.

As Ukraine’s reach grows and the economic pain deepens, the Kremlin appears eager to talk before Trump brings out a bigger stick. If Trump truly wants peace, it will take more leverage, not more phone calls. As the Journal put it, “sometimes Tomahawks are a force for peace.” If Trump hopes to broker peace, it will require showing strength first, by ensuring Ukraine has enough firepower to make Putin rethink his options.