Here’s What To Know About Early Voting—As Data Shows Some Bright Spots For Democrats
by Sara Dorn · ForbesTopline
Early voting is underway in almost every state across the country just 18 days before Election Day as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied in polls—and while there’s no consensus on who is ahead among early voters so far, there are some positive signs for Democrats in the data.
Key Facts
Forty-six states plus the District of Columbia have started sending mail-in ballots to voters or have begun in-person early voting, with Alabama becoming the first state to send absentee ballots to voters on Sept. 11.
More than 8.4 million voters, including more than 4.5 million Democrats and more than 3.1 million Republicans, have voted early as of Oct. 18, according to data-collection firm TargetSmart.
The higher numbers of Democrats voting early doesn’t necessarily equate to an advantage for Harris, as Democrats are typically more supportive of early voting than Republicans—a gap that’s widened in recent years as Trump claimed widespread fraud in mail-in voting in the wake of his 2020 loss, though he has since reversed course and urged his supporters to vote in any way possible.
One sign that could be a positive indicator for Democrats, however, is the number of newly registered voters since 2022: 49% of the 17.82 million are Democrats, 34% are Republicans and 17% are unaffiliated with either party, CBS reported Wednesday, citing TargetSmart data.
Enthusiasm for voting has also surged among Democrats since Harris’ entrance into the race, ticking up from 55% who said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual in March to 78% in August, according to Gallup, while enthusiasm among Republicans increased slightly during that time, from 59% to 64%.
In the crucial battleground state of Michigan, which President Joe Biden flipped after Trump won it in 2016, the share of early voters who are Black is 2.6 percentage points higher than it was at this point in 2020, according to TargetSmart data provided to CBS on Wednesday, a trend that could benefit Harris, whose support among Black voters is lower than Biden’s and Hillary Clinton’s, but still much higher than Trump’s.
Contra
No conclusions about who is going to win can be drawn from early voting data, Democratic political strategist and TargetSmart Senior Adviser Tom Bonier warned to CBS. “Polls will tell us how people are going to vote, but not who’s going to vote,” he said, adding that early voting data is “not going to tell us who is going to win, but it’s good breadcrumbs.”
Surprising Fact
The share of early voters in Pennsylvania who are Republicans has increased to 24% so far this year from 16% in 2020, according to TargetSmart data provided to CBS on Wednesday. Democrats have historically dominated absentee ballot voting in Pennsylvania.
Tangent
More than 1 million voters have already cast early ballots in Georgia, breaking in-person records on the first day of early voting Tuesday and again Wednesday. As of Thursday morning, 55,748 people had voted by absentee ballot and 940,387 had voted in person, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. Voting rights advocates have been pushing voters to cast their ballots in person amid a slate of new GOP-backed rules in Georgia they say could hinder the election process, including requiring the hand-counting of ballots and video surveillance at ballot drop boxes after polls close during early voting. A judge overturned the rules passed by the Trump-aligned State Election Board on Thursday, but the Republican National Committee and state Republican Party have appealed the ruling. North Carolina voters also broke the state’s record on the first day of early voting Thursday, when 353,166 ballots were cast, according to the State Board of Elections, despite concerns the devastation from Hurricane Helene would hinder poll access. Thursday’s figures topped the previous record set in 2020 by 1.3%.
Big Number
46%. That’s the share of voters polled by Gallup in September who said they have already voted or plan to vote early in the 2024 election, including 46% of Democrats, 43% of independent voters and 31% of Republicans. The share of early-voting Democrats has ticked up slightly since 2016, from 44%, while the share of independents has climbed from 35% and Republican participation in early voting has dropped from 42%.
Key Background
Trump and Harris head into Election Day in a dead-heat contest, with polls showing a virtual tie between the two, including in the seven swing states likely to decide the election. Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, though neither candidate is leading in any battleground state by more than 1.6 points.
What To Watch For
Trump and his allies are gearing up to contest the results of the election if he loses, which Trump has claimed could only happen if Democrats cheat. Trump has also said he will only accept the results of the election if it is “fair and legal and a good election,” leaving open the possibility he could claim malfeasance if he loses. Republicans have already filed dozens of voting rights lawsuits in the 2023-2024 cycle to contest election protocols in battleground states, while Trump has claimed his legal issues, Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket and any negative coverage of him in the race all amount to election interference.
When Is Election Day?
Nov. 5.
How Do Early Voting Totals This Year Compare To Previous Elections?
Early voting totals pale in comparison to 2020 figures, when the pandemic drove up participation in mail-in voting, but they’re slightly ahead of early voting in the 2022 midterm elections, which is also typical as voter participation is historically higher in presidential election years.
How Many People Have Voted In Swing States?
In the seven swing states most likely to decide the results of the election, 1.4 million Democrats have voted, while just under 1 million Republicans and 253,449 unaffiliated voters have already cast their ballots, according to TargetSmart.
Which States Have Started Early Voting By Mail Or Absentee Ballot?
Every state except Washington, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Hawaii.
Is In-Person Early Voting Offered In Every State?
No. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire only offer early voting by mail with an eligible reason.
Is Mail-In Voting Offered In Every State?
Yes, but nine states—Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia—require an eligible reason to vote by mail.
Further Reading
Here’s How Trump And His Allies Are Teeing Up Potential Election Loss Challenges (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Leads In Fox News Survey—Harris Up In 2 Others (Forbes)