Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In 5 New Surveys—As Others Show A Near-Tie

04 Nov 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to five new surveys released this week, but polling averages show Trump has cut into Harris’ advantage in the crucial swing state, making it a virtual tie less than a week before Election Day.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign rally on July 23 in West Allis, ... [+] Wisconsin.Getty Images

Key Facts

Most polls of Wisconsin—whose 10 electoral votes could prove crucial—reflect a razor-thin race, with Harris leading by just one point in FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Harris and Trump are tied at 49% in the final Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.4 points).

Harris is ahead 49%-47% among likely voters in the final pre-election New York Times/Siena swing state poll released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), though Trump has a roughly one-point lead in a Morning Consult survey that rounds up to about 48%-48%.

Harris leads 50%-48% in a Marist poll released Friday of likely voters that includes undecideds who are leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 3.4 points), and she’s up 50%-49% among likely voters in a Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday (margin of error 4.4 points) that also includes undecided voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates—showing Trump has significantly narrowed the six-point lead Harris had in the school’s previous poll released Oct. 2.

Harris has a larger 51%-45% lead in an CNN/SSRS poll also out Wednesday (margin of error 4.8 points), and she holds a 50%-47% edge over Trump in a Cooperative Election Study survey released in the past week, part of a national study by universities that was conducted by YouGov (1,542 respondents).

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as there are several competitive U.S. House races in the state on the ballot and Republicans are in a tight contest to maintain majority control of the state Assembly, Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at University of Wisconsin-La Crosse told WUWM public radio in Milwaukee.

Waning support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats as Cook Political Report moved the state from lean Democrat to a toss-up last week after finding her lead over Republican Eric Hovde has shrunk from seven points to two since August, though a Marquette Law School poll, also released last week, still found her with a seven point advantage.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than one point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump beat Hillary Clinton there in 2016; former President Barack Obama won the state by decisive margins in both 2008 and in 2012.

What To Watch For

Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or early Nov. 6, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported. The state can begin processing absentee ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day, and polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

Tangent

Republicans control both the State assembly and Senate in Wisconsin, and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Tony Evers.

Key Background

The race between Harris and Trump is a virtual tie, according to surveys that show Trump has closed the polling gap after Harris led him in most surveys taken in the weeks after she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket in July. Wisconsin is among seven swing states likely to determine the winner of the 2024 election, in addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is widely considered to be Harris’ clearest path to 270 electoral votes, assuming she also takes all of the other states Biden won in 2020.

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In 5 New Surveys—As Others Show A Near-Tie

Topline

Key Facts

What To Watch For

Tangent

Key Background

Further Reading