Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Barely Leads In Polling Averages

04 Nov 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly dead-even in Michigan headed into Election Day, according to polling averages, as at least five surveys over the past week show her with a slight advantage—but the race remains razor-thin in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win Tuesday for either candidate.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally on Oct. 26 in Novi, Michigan.Getty Images

Key Facts

Despite a handful of good surveys for Harris in recent weeks, most poll trackers show an increasingly tight race in Michigan, a key state given its 15 electoral votes: FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris leading by 0.9 points.

Harris leads by two points, 50% to 48%, in the final Emerson College/The Hill survey released Monday (margin of error 3.4 points).

Trump and Harris are tied at 47% in Michigan among likely voters in the latest New York Times/Siena survey released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), although a Morning Consult survey shows Harris up 49%-48%.

Harris has a three-point lead over Trump, 51%-48%, in a Marist poll released Friday when accounting for likely voters who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate (margin of error 3.5 points), representing a slight dip from her five-point lead in Marist’s September survey.

Trump is up 47%-45% in a Washington Post poll out Thursday (margin of error 3.7 points), and the race is tied at 49% in a two-way Fox News poll of likely voters published Wednesday (margin of error three points).

Harris is up 51%-46% in a likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Survey released last week (2,336 respondents, part of a large nationwide study backed by universities and conducted by YouGov).

The vice president also had a 48%-43% lead in a CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday (margin of error 4.8).

Models by FiveThirtyEight and statistician Nate Silver give Harris the narrowest of edges in Michigan, estimating a roughly 60% chance she’ll win the state.

Harris’ clearest path to victory runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall” states—if she wins all three, which account for 44 electoral votes, plus all of the other non-swing states won by Biden in 2020, she’ll reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the election.

Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020, after Hillary Clinton lost to Trump there in 2016 by less than a point, making her the first Democrat to lose to a Republican presidential candidate in Michigan since 1988.

What To Watch For

Unofficial results are expected the day after the election, Secretary of State Joceyln Benson told reporters earlier this month. Recent changes to election laws allow officials to begin processing ballots earlier than in the past, which may speed up the results. Polls close in most of the state at 8 p.m. EST, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are in the Central Time Zone and will continue voting until 9 p.m. EST.

What Are The Key Demographic Groups In Michigan?

The Harris campaign is largely tying its success to improved numbers among Black and white working-class voters in Michigan—home to the largest Black-majority city in the U.S., Detroit, and a significant population of union voters who typically back Democratic presidential candidates. Data show Harris has made inroads among white voters without college degrees—a key demographic for Trump—since Joe Biden’s exit from the race, even as Trump leads the group by double digits. Support for Democrats among Black voters—who typically vote for the party by large margins—has eroded somewhat since 2020, though Harris appears to have won back some support in Michigan, according to Times/Siena polling that showed 75% of Black voters would vote for her in the group’s September survey, compared to 49% who said the same of Biden in May. Trump, meanwhile, has attacked the Biden-Harris administration’s policies to promote a transition to electric vehicles in Michigan, home to the “Big Three” auto manufacturers, alleging they are a threat to the auto industry and its scores of Michigan-based employees.

Why Do Union Endorsements Matter In Michigan?

Michigan households with a union member have been more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate than union households nationwide in the last three presidential elections, Reuters reported, citing the polling firm Edison Research. The United Auto Workers’ endorsement of Harris was considered a boon to her candidacy in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters’ decisions not to endorse anyone, after backing Biden in 2020 and historically supporting Democrats, were widely seen as blows to Harris.

Will Arab-American Voters Break With Kamala Harris In Michigan?

Michigan has a sizeable Arab-American population, many of whom have been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s continued support for Israel in its war in Gaza. Recent polling for the Arab American Institute by John Zogby Strategies appears to show the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis has severely dented his support among the demographic, with those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats split at 38%, compared to 40% who identified as Democrats and 32% who identified as Republicans in 2020. The pro-Palestinian group “Uncommitted”—which encouraged primary voters not to back Biden in Michigan and other key states—has not endorsed Harris, though it said this week it views Trump as worse than Harris.

Tangent

Democrats control all three branches of state government in Michigan for the first time since the 1980s.

Key Background

Trump had been leading Biden in Michigan in polls by a slim margin prior to Biden dropping out of the race. The state’s popular Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, co-chair of both Biden’s and Harris’ campaigns, is seen as a key asset in helping Harris repeat Whitmer’s own success in the state, where she has won two elections by double-digits, increasing her margins in the 2022 election while campaigning on abortion rights in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s reversal. Abortion, while still a high-ranking priority for voters, has lost some of its weight in electoral politics since 2022, however, as other issues, including ongoing inflation and the Israel-Hamas war, are also driving voting decisions.

Contra

A win for Harris across the “blue wall” is contingent on her winning Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and its single electoral vote. The district is an outlier in the state as it typically votes for a Democrat for president. Nebraska is just one of two states that uses a piecemeal approach to allocating electoral votes instead of a winner-takes-all approach. A final-hour GOP-backed effort to change the rule recently failed to gain the traction needed to succeed in the state legislature.