Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Pennsylvania’s A Dead Heat—As Harris Leads Michigan, Trump Takes Arizona

Topline

A fresh tranche of new swing state polls shows no clear leader in the seven states likely to decide the 2024 election, with the exception of two states where one candidate has a slight advantage.

Key Facts

Pennsylvania: Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in two of four surveys out Thursday: by four points (50% to 46%) in a New York Times/Siena College survey of likely voters, and by one point (48% to 47%) in a Washington Post poll of registered voters, while a Marist poll of likely voters shows them tied at 49% and an Emerson College likely voter poll shows Trump up by one point (48% to 47%).

Michigan: Harris is up 52% to Trump’s 47%, according to Marist, while Emerson found her leading by two points, 49% to 47%, and a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows her up by five, 45% to 50%.

Wisconsin: Harris leads by one point in the Marist (50% to 49%) and Quinnipiac (48% to 47%) polls, while Trump is up one point (49% to 48%) in the Emerson survey.

Arizona: Trump leads Harris by one point, 49% to 48%, in the Emerson survey, while a CNN/SSRS survey from Aug. 23 to 29 found him up by five points, 49% to 44%—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.

Georgia: Trump leads by three points, 50% to 47%, in the Emerson survey, while Harris is up by one point, 48% to 47%, in the CNN/SSRS poll (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).

Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the Emerson poll, and Harris is up by one point, 48% to 47%, in the CNN/SSRS survey.

Big Number

1. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, according to Emerson, after Bloomberg/Morning Consult found her up by two points, 49% to 47%, in late August. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left.

Tangent

Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)

Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)

Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)