Foreign intelligence: Russia has no intention of attacking Estonia this year

According to the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia has no intention of launching a military attack against Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year.

In its annual report, International Security and Estonia 2026, the Service notes that on 10 January Russia’s war against Ukraine reached its 1,417th day – precisely the same duration as the Second World War on the Eastern Front between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.

“In nearly four years, Russia has depleted most of the military stockpiles it inherited from the Soviet Union, lost around one million soldiers killed or severely wounded at the front, and inflicted untold suffering on Ukrainians. And yet Ukraine endures,” writes Kaupo Rosin, the director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, in the report’s foreword.

Despite Russia’s frustrated efforts, there are no signs of change within the regime’s leadership. Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin’s figurehead, remains convinced that Russia – with its purportedly unique global role – is following a “special path”. The report concludes that Moscow therefore continues to pursue Ukraine’s complete subjugation.

“Through repression, Russia’s ruler has created the illusion that there is no alternative to him – that the choice lies between Putin and an abyss of uncertainty. But no one is irreplaceable. The war in Ukraine has brought severe hardship to Russia, and although Russians have cultivated a myth of themselves as masters of suffering, their tolerance for pain is not unlimited,” Rosin observes in his foreword.

Estonia and NATO must continue investing in defence

“A declining economy, empty fuel tanks, and the return of murderers and rapists from the front are bearing down ever more heavily on ordinary Russians. History shows that when the screws are tightened too far, Russians have at times found the courage to leap into the unknown.”

While sanctions are clearly affecting the Russian economy, loopholes remain and must be closed through targeted measures and closer coordination among Western countries. This applies whether the issue is the smuggling of dual-use goods into Russia, weaknesses in its explosives industry, or the critical technological advances NATO will require to counter Russia’s growing reliance on unmanned military systems, the foreword to the intelligence report asserts.

“There is, however, no cause for panic. In the assessment of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia has no intention of launching a military attack against Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year. We are likely to reach a similar conclusion next year, because Estonia and Europe have taken steps that compel the Kremlin to calculate very carefully what, if anything, it can risk attempting.”

“Even if no such intention exists today, our task is to ensure that this remains the case tomorrow and in the years ahead. Russia’s military reform will enhance the capabilities of its armed forces over time. To counter this, Estonia and NATO must continue to invest in defence. Russia’s calculations of the balance of power must always work to our advantage.”

According to the intelligence report, the Kremlin is merely feigning interest in peace talks, seeking to restore bilateral relations with the United States to their previous level and to formalise Ukraine’s defeat. Despite this illusory thaw, Russia continues to regard the United States as its principal adversary.

A complete collapse of the Russian economy unlikely

“Aspiring to great-power status, Russia seeks to undermine the existing international order by courting the so-called ‘global majority’ and exerting pressure on the Commonwealth of Independent States.”

“Russia’s attempt to topple Moldova’s pro-Western government has failed, but it will not be the last. The Kremlin will almost certainly learn from its mistakes and make another attempt to hijack Moldova’s statehood.”

In Moscow’s rhetoric, the Baltic Sea region is now described as the “Baltic–Scandinavian macro-region”. According to the report, Russia employs this label to obscure its efforts to influence countries in the region and to re-establish contacts with researchers and policymakers there.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service also states in its report that Russia is facing increasingly severe economic challenges and is neglecting almost all non-military sectors as the war in Ukraine drags on. As a result, the risk of economic and social instability is expected to rise in 2026; however, a complete collapse of the Russian economy remains highly unlikely.

“Russia’s military-industrial complex has increased artillery ammunition production more than seventeen fold since 2021. This suggests that Russia is highly likely preparing for future conflict even as its war against Ukraine continues,” the report observes.

AI has serious risks along its benefits

Turning to Asia, the intelligence service notes in its annual publication that North Korea is intensifying its international activities: the regime spies even on its partners and raises funds for its weapons programmes through its overseas labour diaspora.

“China and Russia believe that the current period of geopolitical upheaval presents an opportunity to reshape the global balance of power in their favour. Although they mistrust one another, both calculate that they stand to gain more than they risk losing from cooperation.”

On artificial intelligence, the report emphasises that alongside its many benefits, AI carries a range of significant risks.

“Mitigating these risks must take place at both state and organisational levels, through the implementation of a coherent AI-use strategy and the organisational, ethical, legal and technical measures that flow from it,” the intelligence agency states.

The full report is available in English on the website of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.